After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.
The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.
As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.
Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season
Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.
Processing activities
The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 11.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 100,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production remains at 1.79 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 240,000 boxes are white, and 1.55 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast is unchanged at 450,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
As the industry shifts its focus to the new crop, growing conditions for the next apple season in Poland were initially favourable, with fruit maturation occurring three weeks earlier than usual. However, a cold snap between April 2020-2023 significantly affected the orchards. This freeze occurred while the apple trees were still in bloom, and despite strong flowering, the frost caused damage across all apple varieties.
Following the freeze event in April, Poland experienced a second cold wave in May, accompanied by hailstorms in the latter half of the month. While it is difficult to assess the full extent of the damage, market players estimate the crop yield will be no more than 3 million tonnes, significantly lower than the anticipated 5 million tonnes. Consequently, apple juice concentrate production is expected to be around 200,000 MT for 2024/25 MY, down from 2023/24 MY which was 265,000 MT.
The apple crop in Turkey in the 2024/25 MY is also expected to be smaller year-over-year by at least 15 %, according to market sources. This decrease is attributed to heavy rainfall and lower yields following three years of high yields, with one market player noting that “the trees are tired.” Demand for Turkish apple concentrate has been strong from US buyers in recent months. …
In MY 2023/24, the drop registered in EU orange and mandarin production was not compensated by the larger lemon and grapefruit output. EU citrus production is concentrated in the Mediterranean region. Spain and Italy represent the leading EU citrus producers, followed by Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus.
The EU is a net importer of citrus fruits, with imports largely exceeding exports. A large amount of trade takes place internally, from producing to non-producing EU Member States. With trade through Asian routes becoming increasingly challenging, EU neighboring citrus producers in the Mediterranean Basin (such as Egypt or Turkey) are concentrating their export efforts in the EU. This has been particularly true during the first half of the marketing year, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere citrus producing season and resulting in increasing competition in the region. EU citrus exports in MY 2023/24, largely concentrated in non-EU Member European countries, are projected to decline only marginally …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 17.9 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 17.9 million boxes. The total includes 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 11.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) – standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening. Meanwhile, Post revised the orange weight forecast to 165 grams/5.82 ounces in MY 2023/24, 4.2 percent heavier than Post previous estimate of 158 grams due to the lower production and consequent more room for the fruits to grow. Post revised the total forecast related to the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 at 1.06 MMT, a decrease of 8.62 percent vis-à-vis the Post estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.16 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by drought, extremely high temperatures and increase of greening incidence …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.
The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.
Domestic market
Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).
Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.
After two months of price drops, orange values are expected to increase again in the in natura market in June. Processing activities are likely to be intensified, since more companies have started to operate, limiting the supply of fruits in the in natura market. Players say that, although the demand is usually lower in this period, since the weather is colder, the supply in the in natura market is expected to be smaller than the demand.
Orange prices already increased in the second fortnight of May, after the release of estimates of a lower output by Fundecitrus. Thus, many producers stopped harvesting fruits for the in natura market, preferring to meet the demand from the industry.
In May, the average for the pear orange was BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, downing 11.21 % in relation to April/24.
Although prices dropped from April to May, they are still at high levels. In addition to the forecast of a small crop, low stocks of orange juice have been boosting the industrial demand for fruits.
Tahiti lime
The supply is expected to continue limited in June, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. Colder temperatures have concerned producers, since this scenario may result in characteristics that purchasers disapprove, especially in the international market. In May, the price average was at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.96% up compared to April.
Ponkan tangerine
Prices may move up in June, especially from the second fortnight on, when the supply in São Paulo tends to decrease. Moreover, the fruit can be a good alternative for orange and other fruits, which are presenting higher quotations. On the other hand, the demand is likely to decrease due to the cold weather, limiting more significant price rises.
The 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP1 and FCAV/Unesp2, is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production as compared to the previous crop):
37.12 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (- 36.10 %);
15.72 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (- 15.07 %);
70.97 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety (- 27.30 %);
81.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties (- 22.45 %);
26.99 million boxes of the Natal variety (- 2.91 %).
Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (- 47.48 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36 % as compared to the previous crop that totaled 307.22 million boxes, a value close to the average for the last decade …
1Marcos Fava Neves, Part-time Full Professor at FEA-RP/USP. 2José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1
The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
On 18 April 2024, WCO members gathered for its fifth Annual General Meeting (AGM). During the AGM, WCO presented the consolidated data of the production and export forecasts for the forthcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season 2024. The preliminary forecast was collected thanks to WCO members in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay. In addition, the Association also marked its first change in leadership with the election of a new Steering Committee that will guide its work in the upcoming two years.
During WCO’s AGM, the preliminary forecast for the upcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season was presented to representatives from the citrus sector in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay, citrus production is expected to decrease by 0.77 % compared to the previous year, with an estimated production of 24,338,123 tonnes. Exports, however, are expected to continue increasing, with a projected growth of 7.45 % compared to 2023 to reach 4,156,879 tonnes.
Orange production is forecasted to decrease by 5.66% compared to 2023, with 15,478,167 T in total. Soft citrus production is expected to increase significantly (+ 11.58 %, 3,325,829 T in total). A 5.69 % increase is projected for lemon production (3,244,857 tonnes in total), while grapefruit production should decline by 3.89 % (to 532.539 tonnes in total). Limes are forecasted to reach 1,756,731 T, which is 10.57 % above the 2023 figure.
The Southern Hemisphere season has been negatively impacted by difficult climatic conditions, as drought-like conditions in the Southern Hemisphere negatively affected production. However, expectations have improved recently, leading to only a slight decrease in production.
WCO marks its first leadership transition, demonstrating its transition towards full maturity, as demonstrated by the switch in leadership from the two previous Co-Chairs, Justin Chadwick (for the South Hemisphere) and José Antonio García (for the North Hemisphere) to a new team formed by Sergio del Castillo (for the South Hemisphere) and Badr Bennis (for the North Hemisphere), who will guide the work of the Association over the upcoming two years.
The two outgoing Co-Chairs highlighted WCO’s notable achievements since its founding, quadrupling its membership, making WCO a notable forum for citrus sector actors to exchange perspectives and data on matters of common concern. WCO has launched over the last five years new instruments like common data reporting formats and interactive databases for members with the latest production and trade forecast data, dedicated working groups to explore ways to boost the marketing and the promotion of all citrus categories, hosting of physical and online events allowing the sector to discuss and interact, helping to further the knowledge of actors, and liaising with the media to help promote the visibility of the sector.
All oranges 18.8 million boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realised, this will be 19 percent more than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 12.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).
Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.
CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.
Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.
In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.
Production
The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.
Total forecast production of oranges1 remains at 307.22 million boxes
The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 19.8 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, down 700,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 25 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 1,1 % compared to 2023, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 2,3 %.
On Friday 9 February 2024, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled with the support of CAFI (Argentina), APAL (Australia), ABPM (Brazil), Fruits from Chile (Chile), New Zealand Apples and Pears (New Zealand), and Hortgro (South Africa), and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.
Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2024 crop forecast suggests an increase of 1,1 % to a total of 4.775.530 t compared to last year (4.725.574 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.396.659 t (+ 4,6 from 2023), followed by Brazil (1.100.000 t, in line with 2023), Chile (912.000 t, – 8,4 %), New Zealand (557.871 t, + 14,7 %), Argentina (501.000 t, – 4,8 %), and Australia (308.000 t, + 5,8 %). With 1.578.148 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume remaining in line with 2023 although 11,4 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 8 %) to reach 1.551.696 t. South Africa (+ 5,1 %) and Chile (+ 5,3 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 572.280 t and 493.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 22,2 % (381.729 t in total), while lower export quantities are forecasted for Argentina (70.000 t, – 4,1 %) and Brazil (32.000 t, – 10,6 %).
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 2,3 %), bringing the total to 1.465.800 t. Argentina (614.000 t), Chile (203.000 t), and Australia (72.000 t) are expected to decrease their production by 6 %, 5,4 %, and 2,7 % respectively. South Africa’s production levels are forecasted to increase to 567.334 t (+ 3,4 % from 2023), as well as New Zealand’s (+ 8,4 %, with 9.066 t in total). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (508.000 t, with a slight 1,3 % decrease compared to 2023), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (300.082 t). Export figures are expected to be in line with 2023 with a total of 654.323 t.
European apple stocks stood at 3.851.098 t as of 1 January 2024, which is 4,6 % lower than in 2023. Similarly, the total of 582.587 t for European pears is 4,4 % below the figures from the previous year. On the other hand, stock figures are higher in the USA, both for apples (2.138.376 t, + 33,6 %) and for pears (169.474 t, + 14,9 %).
During the Annual General Meeting, Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest – USA) was elected as the President of the association, taking over from Dominik Woźniak (Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards / Rajpol – Poland). Nick Dicey (Hortgro – South Africa) will join him as the Vice-President. Regarding his new role, Mr Correa commented: “I’m honoured that I have been elected as the next Chairman of WAPA. I look forward to working with the WAPA staff and membership to advance the data sharing, market insights, and explore new avenues that will benefit the organization and its members”. Finally, the Annual General Meeting confirmed that the next edition of Prognosfruit will be held in Budapest, Hungary, on 7-9 August 2024.
Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.
This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.
As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.
The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.
Industry
Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.
The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.
Tahiti lime
Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.
The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Mintec Benchmark price (MBP) for apple juice concentrate medium acidity is currently assessed at EUR 1900/MT, up 8.5 % m-o-m and 28.8 % y-o-y.
Apple production in Europe has been revised by The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) to be no more than 11 million tonnes down 4 % from the initial forecast. Poland, Europe’s top apple producer, is expected by the industry to yield around 3.3 million tonnes in 2023, 700 000 tonnes lower than WAPA’s August forecast.
Processing is reaching completion with most processors finished for the season. Market sources said that Polish apple juice concentrate production will be around 230,000 tonnes. Demand is strong throughout Europe, but supply is limiting trade and subduing the market, according to market sources, most apple juice is concluded under contracts. Many buyers were expecting a drop in price as the processing season came to an end, yet this never occurred.
China has also had a challenging apple season with a lower crop than normal. According to market sources, the industry expects apple juice concentrate production in China to reach approximately 300,000 tonnes in 2023, which is well below typical levels that often exceed 500,000 tonnes. Market sources have said that some of China’s juice has been imported into Turkey and blended domestically. Market sources suggest bullish expectations for the industry in upcoming months as supply and demand dynamics tighten.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes
The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.
In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is carried forward from October at 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 38.7 million. Trees planted in 2020 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2023. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
With the first part of this year’s harvesting on its way, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has started revising its annual Apple and Pear Crop Forecast based on the latest insights from its members on the season. The first EU apple estimates, which were released on 3 August 2023 during the Prognosfruit Conference, indicated a 3,3 % decrease compared to last year, to a total of 11.410.681 t. The EU pear crop for 2023 was estimated to decrease by 12,9 % compared to last year’s crop with a total of 1.745.632 t.
The early forecast is released during Prognosfruit, when harvesting is just about to start. The crop can therefore still be impacted by nature and climatic factors up to late October, with either a positive or negative impact on the quantity and quality of the harvest. Historically, these adjustments to the forecast amounted to small percentage variations.
The first updates from Prognosfruit’s network of national producing associations indicate that climate change- related conditions negatively affected the crop in the weeks following the publication of the original estimates. The climatic havoc included droughts, floodings, hail, warm nights, and an increased risk of pests across the EU. In other cases, rains and colder nights have positively impacted the size development and colouring respectively in some producing regions.
Regarding this season, while the apple harvesting is still expected to carry on for several weeks, based on the first regional adjustments (both upward and downward) WAPA estimates that the 2023 apple crop is expected to settle at just below 11 million t (about 4 % lower than the original forecast).
In regard to pears, a further decline of the forecast in Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands will lead to a lower crop, even lower than in 2021. The final pear crop is expected to be around 1.720.000 T, about 6 % lower than the initial forecast.
WAPA will continue to monitor closely the harvesting developments in Europe, with the objective of consolidating the most accurate and recent figures into its final Crop Forecast later this year once harvesting is completed.
Orange production is expected to be low in Florida for one more year. According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in FL is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, of which 7.5 million of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million, valência oranges.
Although that volume is considered low, it is still 30 % higher than that from last season, when two hurricanes hit Florida – Ian, in September 2022, and Nicole, in November 2022. Although hurricane Idalia hit Florida State in late August/23, damages were not that severe.
It is important to mention that this output is not enough to meet the demand from the US, thus, the country is expected to continue to import high amounts of orange juice – and Brazil is the major supplier of the commodity to them. This scenario becomes worse when the local inventories are considered, since they are decreasing year after year.
Brazilian market
Liquidity was high in the Brazilian orange market in the first fortnight of October, despite the holiday on the 12th (Day of Our Lady of Aparecida). According to Cepea collaborators, lower supply and higher demand underpinned prices. On the other hand, for tahiti lime, values dropped, influenced by lower demand and rising supply.
The higher demand for orange juice from the United States raised the Brazilian exports of the commodity in the first two months of the 2023/24 exporting season (July and August). The average price paid for the national juice increased in that period too, influenced by low inventories and the lower output in Brazil. The higher volume exported and the valuation of the Brazilian juice abroad resulted in a significant increase in the revenue of exporters.
According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 182.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July and August, 4% more than the volume shipped in the same period of 2022. Revenue totaled USD 397.9 million, a staggering 20% up in the same comparison.
As for the types of juice exported, shipments of Not-From-Concentrate (NFC) orange juice increased 19 %, and revenue, 25 %; of FCOJ, the volume exported decreased 3 %, while the revenue rose 17 %. The different performances of the exports of these types of juice are linked to the higher demand from the US for NFC juice, whose volume sent to the North-American country rose a staggering 51 %.
The United States
For one more season, the US have been importing orange juice from Brazil. In the first two months of the current season (23/24), the US imported 50.5 thousand tons of FCOJ, an increase of 38 % compared to that in the same period of 2022/23. Revenue totaled USD 113.2 million, 57 % higher, in the same comparison.
Lower orange production in the US because of the 2022/23 crop of Florida – which has decreased 62 %, according to the USDA – and lower supply from Mexico, the second major supplier of orange juice to the US, led the country to raise imports from Brazil.
European Union
To the European Union, Brazil exported, in July and August, 112.6 thousand tons of orange juice, a slight 3 % up from that last season. Revenue totaled USD 241.9 million in the two first months of the season, 14 % higher, in the same comparison.
Crop Estimates
According to data released this week by Fundecitrus, the 2023/24 harvest in the citrus belt (São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro) is expected at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8-kg each, stable compared to that estimated in May but 1.5 % lower than the output from last season. It is important to highlight that this volume is a lot lower than the industry’s needs to meet the demand from abroad and replenish inventories, which are currently very low.
Orange Juice
Global orange juice production for 2022/23 is estimated 9 percent lower to 1.5 million tons (65 degrees brix). Production is down due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and the United States. Consumption is mostly flat while exports are estimated down with the reduced available supplies …
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 15.9 million boxes. The total is comprised of 6.15 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 9.70 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 100,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is lowered 10,000 boxes to 1.81 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 250,000 boxes are white, and 1.56 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast is now 480,000 boxes. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
2023 -2024 orange crop forecast
The 2023 – 2024 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus beltby Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 309.34 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:
56.11 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada;
98.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
105.23 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
30.83 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 27.02 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The projected volume is lower only by 1.55 percent as compared to the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes. That minor difference maintains the production at the same level as in the previous crop season and within the average range for the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. As compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a slight increase of 1.04 percent …
Orange production for the 2022-2023 crop season totaled 314.21 million boxes1
The 2022-2023 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 314.21 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Following the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released an update of the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast that was originally presented during the Association’s latest Annual General Meeting in Berlin’s Fruit Logistica. According to the revised forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to increase by 2,38 % to reach 4.974.990 T, while pear production is expected to decrease by 1,25 % to a total of 1.319.601 T.
During its latest Annual General Meeting in Berlin’s Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. The yearly report is compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia), and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. The initial forecast for the 2023 season, which estimated a 6 % and 1 % increase for apples and pears respectively compared to 2022, has been revised in light of the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere. New Zealand’s and South Africa’s apple crop forecasts have been revised downward by 77.902 T and 77.276 T respectively. New Zealand’s pear crop estimates have also been slightly decreased compared to the initial forecast (- 323 T), as well as South Africa’s (- 28.726 T).
Regarding apples, the updated Southern Hemisphere 2023 crop forecast suggests an increase of 2 % to a total of 4.974.990 T compared to last year (4.859.026 T). A smaller apple crop is expected in New Zealand, (457.675 T, – 9 % compared to 2022), Australia (- 8 % compared to 2022, to a total of 290.000 T), and South Africa (1.142.880 T, down 5 %). Chile remains the largest producer (1.409.633 T, in line with 2022), now followed by Brazil (1.150.000 T, + 12 %). Argentina’s apple production should reach 525.000 T (+ 24 % compared to 2022). Exports are also expected to decrease (- 3 % compared to 2022) to a total of 1.556.668 T. Chile remains the largest exporter (604.000 T) followed by South Africa (509.158 T), whose exports are forecasted to decrease by 10 %. Exports from New Zealand (286.823 T) and Australia (2.687 T) are also expected to decrease by 15 % and 1 % respectively. Brazil’s (70.000 T) and Argentina’s exports (84.000 T), on the other hand, are expected to recover from the low 2022 figures. With 1.843.130 T, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, with its production expected to increase by 4 % compared to 2022.
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decrease of the crop (- 1 %), which will drop to 1.319.601 T. While Argentina and Chile are expected to increase their production by 4 % and 2 % respectively, South Africa’s (- 6 %), Australia’s (- 16 %), and New Zealand’s (- 19 %) production levels are all expected to decrease. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (592.000 T), followed by South Africa (477.419 T), Chile (170.000 T), Australia (72.016 T), and New Zealand (8.120 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (481.049 T, in line with 2022), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (332.447 T). Export figures are expected to be stable (670.054 T), with a 12 % increase in Argentinian exports and a 13 % decrease in exports from South Africa.
(Photo: WAPA)
All oranges 16.1 million boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.1 million boxes, increased 100,000 boxes from the February forecast. If realised, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.10 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The processing of the oranges from the 2022/23 crop is beginning to slow down in Brazil, but it is still higher than the usual for this time of the year. In February, five plants – of the large-sized processors – were operating, the same as that last year but much more than that in 2020 and in 2021, when only a single plant was processing oranges.
According to Cepea collaborators, last year, the orange harvest was delayed, which explained the higher volume being processed in February. However, in the 2022/23 season, late processing is due to rains, which are hampering crop activities – although workers manage to get into the groves to harvest oranges, transportation is being difficulted.
The end of processing is still uncertain. Agents from processors reported that planning has been postponed because of the difficulties in crop activities. So far, some plants are expected to continue to process oranges in March.
A frequent concern among agents from processors is the yield of the oranges being harvested, majorly in 2023. They reported that, with frequent rainfall, the quality of the fruits for juice production has decreased, raising the number of boxes needed to the produce a ton of concentrated juice – higher moisture raises water absorption by fruits.
As for prices in the spot market, they were up to BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered to processor) in February, considering large-sized companies. At smaller-sized processors, the prices paid for pear and late oranges reached BRL 40.00/box.
For the new crop (2023/24), whose processing is expected to begin in May/June, bids from large-sized processors have been up to BRL 38.00/box. Agents from processors reported that, despite the increase compared to the first bids for the 2022/23 crop, farmers expected higher prices, and, thus, many of them postponed deals.
ORANGE JUICE – Despite the valuation of concentrated orange juice at ICE Futures in recent months, there have not been major reflexes on processors’ revenue. According to Cepea collaborators, most of the juice is being sold through contracts with fixed prices. Since Jan. 1st, the contract due in March has valued 19%%, closing at USD 3,543/ton on Feb. 23rd.
TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime processing was high in February but is expected to slow down in March. The company that processes tahiti lime aims to receive lower volumes of the fruit in the coming weeks. In February, two plants were receiving tahiti lime, but from March onwards, only one of them is expected to keep activities going. The prices paid by large and small-sized processors for tahiti lime are between BRL 12 and BRL 14/box.
The demand for oranges in the in natura market has been increasing since mid-January. The supply, in turn, is low, especially for out of season pear oranges, which present higher quality compared to others. Therefore, pear orange prices are moving up, operating above BRL 50.00 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree). The average price for pear oranges was at BRL 47.59 per box (on tree) between Feb 13 and 16, for an increase of 3.4 % from that in the week before.
The supply of late fruits is also low, but slightly higher than that for pear oranges, and the ripening level is more advanced, which is leading some purchasers away from trades.
Concerning the tahiti lime, prices are at low levels and have not been enough to cover production costs for most citrus growers. However, in mid-February, players surveyed by Cepea reported a slight price rise because of the firm demand (as the carnaval period was close in Brazil, the demand to prepare drinks usually increases) and of the quality improvement in some areas – fruits that are close to the ideal standard have higher prices. In spite of that, tahiti prices may not recover significantly up to the end of February, since the supply is expected to continue high.
ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS – Brazilian shipments of orange juice continue to increase in the partial of the 2022/23 season (from July/22 to January/23). Secex data indicate that the volume totaled 707.7 thousand tons, 15% up compared to the same period in 2021/22. The revenue totaled USD 1.3 billion, for an increase of 35% in the same comparison.
Updated orange production1 forecast totals 316.23 million boxes
The third 2022-2023 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 amounted to 316.23 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, a volume 0.7 % higher than the projected scenario in December 2022. This increase is mainly due to the production of the Pera Rio variety, whose harvest is close to the end with higher-than-expected yield. The heavy rains that occurred in the last two months could have further expanded the crop yield, since they contributed to the growth and weight increase of oranges. However, the highly frequent and intense rainfall (many in the form of storms), also significantly intensified the premature fruit drop, offsetting the positive effect of weight gain. This was especially true for the late varieties, as most of these cultivars had not been harvested when the heavy rains started …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 16.0 Million Boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All oranges 18.0 million boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 56 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 11.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The first 2022-2023 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp1 –, is 314.09 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. That figure represents a decrease of 2.86 million boxes in relation to the initial estimate published in May this year and corresponds to -0.9 %. Approximately 22.97 million boxes of the total crop are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro …
Please download the full orange crop forecast update under www.fundecitrus.com.
1Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Prognosfruit’s 2022 European apple and pear crop forecast reveals that apple production is set to increase by 1 % compared to 2021, while the upcoming pear crop is estimated to increase by 20 % compared to last year’s record low crop of the decade and by 5 % compared to the 3-year average. On 4 August 2022, more than 200 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined Prognosfruit 2022 in Belgrade, Serbia, the first in-person Prognosfruit event after two online editions, to discuss the 2022 production forecast for apples and pears.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2022/2023 European apple and pear crop estimate on the occasion of the 47th edition of the Prognosfruit, which took place on August 3-5 in Belgrade, Serbia, returning as an in-person event after two years of online editions. Philippe Binard stated: “The apple production in the EU27 and UK is estimated to increase by 1 % to reach 12.167.887 T compared to last year. This year’s crop is also forecasted to be 9 % above the average of 2019-2020- 2021”. The European crop continues its adaptation to the varieties and quality specifications demanded by consumers. Dominik Wozniak, President of WAPA, indicated: “The prospects for the upcoming season are positive, although the sector will have to be prepared to face a variety of challenges including significant rising costs impacting the competitiveness of the sector, intense weather conditions, logistical issues, inflation, and difficulty to secure seasonal workers, with the ultimate goal of increasing consumption thanks to the quality of the products of the season and reverse the recent negative trend”.
Philippe Binard added: ”The EU pear crop for 2022 is estimated to increase by 20 % compared to last year’s record low crop of the decade and by 5 % compared to the 3-year average, rising to 2.077.000 T, mainly due to Italy and France more than doubling their production compared to 2021 (reaching 473.690 T and 137.000 T respectively), although, in the case of the former, the crop remains below its full potential.”. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when available.
The 2022 Prognosfruit Conference gathered more than 200 apple and pear sector experts from 23 countries. The event, organised by WAPA and Serbia Does Apples, featured the forecast and market analysis for the European apple and pear market as well as an overview of the latest trends in processing, organic, and the cider market. Luc Vanoideek (COPA COGECA-VBT) commented: “ The Belgrade meeting was the ideal opportunity to learn more about the development in the EU neighbourhood, including Serbia, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, as well as the Central Asia and Caucasus region” He further explained: “The additional contributions from representatives of China, India, and the USA provided to the conference a global outreach with the full picture of the whole Northern Hemisphere crop forecast.”
Prognosfruit is the compass for the apple and pear sector. Philippe Binard concluded: “The strong attendance at this first in-person Prognosfruit Conference after two years of online meetings is a clear sign that the sector representatives also very much appreciate the sense of community and networking opportunities that Prognosfruit provides. We look forward to continuing this tradition next year in Trento, Italy from 2 to 4 August 2023”.
Citrus Forecast
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 41.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 18.3 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), up slightly from the June forecast, and 22.7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 1 percent from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is up 1 percent at 3.33 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 500,000 boxes are white, and 2.83 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2022/23 harvesting of early fruits is advancing in São Paulo state. In this scenario, industrial processing activities are following the harvesting pace and requiring more fruits.
According to players from the industry, the ratio of early fruits has improved and practically all fruits have been allowed for delivery, both in the spot market or for contracts. The industrial yield, however, is still low, which is common at the beginning of the crop.
Crushing activities are now taking place in eight processors in São Paulo: Araraquara, Araras, Bebedouro, Catanduva, Colina, Conchal and two in Matão. The companies have already been receiving some volumes of pera orange, but the majority is early fruits – the pera orange availability tends to increase from mid-September onwards.
In the spot market, values are ranging from 27.00 and 28.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, harvested and delivered at the processor. As for contracts, quotations may hit 31.00 BRL per box in big companies. In small processing companies, values are at 35.00 BRL/box.
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 is forecast at 414.4 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.91 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 15 percent vis-à-vis the current season, supported by good weather conditions as of October 2021. Production costs are estimated at over R$ 33,000 per hectare (ha) or US$6,600/ha, up 27 percent compared to the previous crop, supported by high fertiliser, ag chemicals, and diesel prices. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2021/22 are forecast to be relatively stable at 1.04 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 30,000 MT vis-à-vis MY 2020/21 …
The 2022-2023 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 26, 2022 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 316.95 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:
59.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
17.52 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and BRS Alvorada;
93.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
106.78 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
39.22 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 22.99 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
The projected volume is 20.53 % higher than the previous crop that totaled 262.97 million boxes and represents an increase of 1.11 % in relation to last ten years’ average, …
Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes1
The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.
This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:
47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
In late February, the large-sized processors in São Paulo made their first purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 crop. Of the three companies in the state, two of them are interested in closing deals, bidding from BRL 30 – BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered. The third processing plant was only renewing existing contracts. However, the number of deals closed is still low, since farmers expect prices to rise higher, due to both firm demand from the industry and, largely, higher production costs.
Indeed, data recently released by CitrusBR show that the volume of orange juice stocked by the end of the current season (in June 2022) will not be enough to supply the international market until the middle of next season. According to CitrusBR, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in the 2021/22 season are expected to total 126.574 thousand tons – possibly ranging between 115 and 135 thousand tons. It is important to mention that previous estimates (from September 2021) pointed to stocks between 170 and 190 thousand tons, but bad weather conditions (drought and frosts) reduced processing and hampered fruits development and ripening (influencing industrial yield).
If CitrusBR’s forecasts are confirmed, the volume stocked is expected to be much lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons, scenario that may be observed at least until the end of the 2022/23 season (in June 2023) if the number of oranges produced is not high.
Cepea calculations show that, for stocks to surpass the strategic level by the end of next season, the number of boxes harvested in the citrus belt in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro needs to be over 340 million – and of this total, 300 million need to be allocated to the industry. For these results were considered sales of a million tons (slightly lower than the average) and the average industrial yield of the past five crops.
Although it seems juice supply in Brazil will be tight for at least one more season, agents from processors have not reported any significant valuations for the commodity yet. This would be the major reason why bids for the new season have not been higher. On Feb. 23, the May contract at ICE Futures closed at USD 1,993/ton, 2 % down from that on December 30. However, it is important to mention that values at ICE Futures do not reflect real sales prices of processing plants.
One of the facts that may be constraining juice valuations abroad is the fear of bottling plants as for the negative effects of higher prices in Brazil. In the major destinations for the Brazilian orange juice, the United States and the European Union, demand for the product has been fading for some years, majorly because of the wide variety of other beverages, such as flavoured water, energy drinks and other types of juice, for instance.
On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple and pear production is estimated to decrease by 7 % and 6 % respectively in 2022 compared to the previous year.
On 24 February 2022, on the occasion of its Annual General Meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released its 2022 apple and pear crop estimate for the Southern Hemisphere. This report has been compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia) and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. WAPA’s Secretary General Philippe Binard commented “This forecast is released for the global apples and pears sector on the background of many uncertainties, including the geopolitical tension, the increasing costs for production, the impact of the rise of logistic costs and limited container availability, labour shortage and the increasing concerns of declining consumption due to economic situation”
The 2022 Southern Hemisphere apple crop forecast suggests a decrease of 7 % to a total of 4.864.000 T compared to last year (5.217.000 T), mainly due to the 30 % decrease in Brazil and the 11 % decrease in Argentina. Australia and Chile are also forecasted to decrease their production by 3 % and 2 % respectively. New Zealand and South Africa are the only countries where apple production is expected to increase (15 % and 4 % respectively). Chile is expected to remain the largest Southern Hemisphere apple producer in 2022 (1.455.000 T), followed by South Africa (1.163.000 T), Brazil (900.000 T), New Zealand (590.000 T), Argentina (445.000 T), and Australia (311.000 T). With 1.706.000 T, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, although its production is expected to decrease by 7 % compared to 2021. Despite the decrease in production, exports are forecasted to remain stable overall at 1.744.762 T, with the larger volumes exported by New Zealand (+ 17 %) and South Africa (+ 6 %) compensating for the 65 % decrease in Brazilian apple exports.
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a 6 % decrease of the crop, which will drop to 1.229.000 T. This is mainly due to the 13 % decrease in Argentina, the 11 % decrease in Chile, and the 6 % decrease in Australia. New Zealand and South Africa, on the other hand, are expected to increase their production by 31 % and 5 % respectively. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (522.000 T), followed by South Africa (492.000 T), Chile (122.000 T), Australia (81.000 T), and New Zealand (11.000 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (444.000 T, despite a 4 % decrease compared to 2021), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (306.000 T). Export figures are expected to decrease by 6 % compared to 2021 to a total of 641.207 T, mainly because of a 14 % decrease in Argentinian exports.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the stocks in the USA stood at 1.478.180 T (- 1 % compared to last year) for apples and 149.553 T for pears (+ 32 % compared to last year) on the 1st of February. In Europe, apple and pear stocks stood at 3.606.980 T (7 % up from last year) and 408.340 T (30 % down from last year). Philippe Binard commented: “Season developments clearly demonstrate the impact of logistics and costs on international trade also for Northern Hemisphere suppliers, with the USA concentrating sales for apples and pears in North America. European markets continue to be affected by the Belarus embargo, while the recent developments in Ukraine will also impact sales to all the destinations in Eastern Europe, including Russia, for all global apples and pears suppliers. It is important to continue building efforts to stimulate the consumption”. WAPA’s Annual General Meeting also hosted a discussion on CO2 emissions and how apple and pear production can reach carbon neutrality or even have a positive contribution to the environment. WAPA will continue to cooperate on this topic with its members in a dedicated working group based on the input and expertise of the University of Bolzano (Italy).
Finally, the Annual General Meeting also confirmed that Prognosfruit will return as an in-person event in the first half of August 2022 in Belgrade (Serbia). The exact date of the event will soon be announced.
Orange prices increased in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of February. According to Cepea collaborators, frequent rains in the citrus belt (São Paulo State) favoured the quality (majorly the size) of oranges, making them suitable for sale in the in natura segment and allowing farmers to raise asking prices. Besides, rainfall also hampered the harvesting, limiting supply. In that scenario, values remained firm.
Usually, orange availability is not high in February – a month that may even be considered offseason –, however, as the 2021/22 season is late, supply is currently higher. Still, there is not an orange surplus in the domestic market, since processing at industries has been faster than usual this month.
So far, the number of early varieties to be harvested is not high – activities are expected to step up only from March onwards. However, supply may be constrained by the low flower set in the first blooming. Thus, the oranges currently available in the in natura market are mostly late varieties and pear oranges out of the ideal period.
TAHITI LIME – The production of tahiti lime is also being favoured by rains, however, farmers reported difficulties to harvest the fruits, which underpinned prices in the first fortnight of February, although it is currently the peak of harvest for tahiti lime in Brazil.
Despite the recent valuations for oranges and tahiti lime, Cepea collaborators have reported that the current economic scenario in Brazil is still constraining higher price rises. With high unemployment and inflation rates and lower income, the purchase power of many consumers is weak.
ESTIMATES – Although rains have favoured the quality of part of the fruits in orchards, they have not been enough to reverse all the damages caused by the drought to the oranges from the 2021/22 season.
According to data from Fundecitrus released on Feb. 10, the orange output (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2021/22 season is still estimated at 264.14 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, the same as that estimated in December, but 10 % below that forecast at the beginning of the season.
According to Somar/Climatempo (weather forecast agency), rainfall in SP between May/21 and Jan/22 was 25 % below the average for the period. In the Triângulo Mineiro, rains were 5 % higher than the average. Thus, orange growth was hampered, and the average fruit weight decreased. However, it is important to consider that the oranges harvested in February and in March 2022 are expected to be slightly larger, since they have been favoured by recent rains.
The volume harvested is still enough to replenish ending stocks at the processing plants in SP. According to CitrusBR, by the end of the 2021/22 season (in June 2022), the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (Equivalent) stocked is expected to total 170 – 190 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level (250 thousand tons). It is important to consider that new estimates are supposed to be released until the end of February.
In this scenario, the harvest in 2022/23 needs to be large enough to raise stocks at least to the strategic level and thus prevent a world shortage of orange juice. Cepea calculations show that the orange output next season needs to total, at least, 330 million boxes in order to raise juice stocks to 250 thousand tons.
PROGRESS OF THE 2021/22 HARVESTING – According to Fundecitrus’ report, 82 % of the orange orchards had been harvested by mid-January/22, similar to that in the same period last season (81 %).
WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the updated Northern Hemisphere Apple and Pear Crop Forecast. As crops have now been fully harvested since the first figures were released in August 2021, minor adjustments were made in different countries, although the new estimates are still in line with the original forecast. As the Northern Hemisphere season is getting into full swing, stocks depletion figures will be provided as well by the Association.
During the month of December, WAPA has been consolidating the forecast of apples and pears production for the Northern Hemisphere released during the month of August. As the season is now in full swing and harvest is completed, WAPA is reporting on the latest development for apples and pears in the Northern Hemisphere, while already looking to prepare the Southern Hemisphere 2022 forecast, which will be announced during the last week of February on the occasion of the WAPA Annual General Assembly. Overall, the countries survey by WAPA covers a production of 81 Mio T of apples and 23 Mio T of pears.
The updated estimates for European apple production of the 21 top EU producing countries and the United Kingdom increased by 160.000 T to stand at 11.895,000 T, which is 1,36 % more than what originally forecasted at 11.735,000 T. The forecast for the season is ultimately 11 % (or 1.195,000 T) up from the last year. The new figure is influenced by an increase in Poland (+ 130.000 T to 4,3 Mio T) as well as in Belgium (+ 48.000 T to 240.000 T) and Austria (+ 5.000 T to 120.000 T) but compensated by a decrease in France (- 12.000 T to 1.363.000 T) and the Netherlands (- 5.000 T to 245.000 T). Italy remains stable at 2.044.000 T, with 2.000 T less compared to the initial forecast of August. On the varieties side, the main changes concern Red Jonaprince (+ 53.000 T to 475.000 T), Jonagold (+ 26.000 T to 444.000 T), Idared (+ 24.000 T to 709.000 T), Red Delicious and Pinova (+ 14.000 T each, reaching 654.000 T and 197.000 T respectively), and Cripps Pink (+ 7.000 T to 240.000 T). On the other hand, Gala decreased (- 10.000 T to 1.553.000 T). Other EU countries and Switzerand represent around 200.000 T. In the USA, the apple crop is confirmed to be stable at 4,644.000 T (6 % down to last year), despite some readjustment within the breakdown by states and varieties. The major varieties in the USA are Gala (863.000 T), Red Delicious (625.000 T), and Honey Crisps (542.000 T). Varietal shift continues in the US orchards, with positive development with new varieties such as Ambrosia and Cosmic Crisp. In the US neighbourhood, Mexico’s production in 2021 was down by 2 % at 700.000 T, while Canada’s production dropped 11 % to 360.000 T. The Chinese apple crop was estimated in August just below 45 Mio T, dominated by the Shaanxi (12,5 Mio T) and Shandong (9,5 Mio T) provinces, which together account for close to 50 % of the Chinese apples production. The crop in EU neighbourhood was set at 8 Mio T, covering Turkey (4 Mio T), Russia (1,4 Mio T), Ukraine (1,3 Mio T), Moldova (600.000 T), Serbia (535.000 T), and North Macedonia (140.000 T). In Central Asia, the apple crop is around 2,5 Mio T, out of which 50 % is in Uzbekistan (1.250.000 T), followed by Azerbaijan (300.000 T), Tajikistan (250.000 T), Kazakhstan (200.000 T), and Kyrgystan (150.000 T). Production in India is forecasted at 2,65 Mio T. In the Southern Hemisphere, the final apple crop was set at 5.230.000 T.
In regard to pears, the European pear production is estimated to reach 1.666,000 T in 2021/2022, which is 3,87 % (or 61.000 T) above the August forecast. This increase is resulting from an increase in Belgium (+ 59.000 T to 354.000 T) and the Netherlands (+ 15.000T to 340.000 T) but compensated among others by a decrease in France (- 1.000 T to 56.000 T) and a further decline in the Italian crop due to the severe consequences of the climatic havocs experienced in the main producing regions (- 11.000 T to 202.000 T, while the orchard potential is over 700.000 T). On the varieties, Conference is set to increased by 68.000 T to 873.000 T while Abate should decrease by 12.000 T to
53.000 T. Regarding USA pear production, there is a slight increase from 525.000 T to 529.000 T, driven by Oregon and Washington State, while production in California is severely impacted by the lack of water and labour shortage . The main varieties for the seasons are Williams BC (270.000 T), Anjou (170.000 T), and Bosc (60.000 T). Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, China reported a forecast of pear production of 18,5 Mio T, Turkey of 539.000 T, and India of 89.000 T. In the Southern Hemisphere, the 2021 pears crop ended with a total volume of 1.346.000 T.
Philippe Binard, Secretary-General of WAPA commented: “This year, given the difficult climatic conditions, forecast of production was not easy to be made, in particular regarding the uncertainties on the impact of frost and other spring weather conditions for the quality and the size of products. Looking back, the work undertaken in the different countries was rather precise, as only limited variations were noted. Those were primarily influenced by the good conditions during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere”. Mr Binard added: “In addition to the apple and pear production forecast, WAPA collects stock figures from the major producing countries throughout the season. As of December, WAPA is resuming the collection of data for the stocks as now the crop is fully harvested and stocks data are now able to be calculated in a reliable manner”.
WAPA can reveal that EU apple stocks stood at 4,865,028 T as of 1 December 2021, which is 6.9 % above the figure of 2020, which reflects the 11 % increase in the crop. On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 654,484 T on 1 December 2021, 26,9 % below the volume of 2020, mostly because of the large decrease in Italy. In Europe, the final pear crop is 26 % lower than a year ago. For the USA, apple stocks in December stand at 1,909,045 T, down 2,58 % compared to 2020. This level is reflecting the lower crop in Washington States this year, which stands at just below 3.000,000 T, 4 % less than last year. Pears stocks in the USA stand at 224,278 T, which is 21,6 % above last year.
In regard to the current season, Domink Wozniak, President of WAPA commented: “Several factors influence the development of this Northern Hemisphere season. The rise in costs for production input, packaging, energy or labour as well as the predicted inflation will have an impact on prodcuer’s margins and competitiveness. Moreover, logistics challenges in terms of availability and costs are some of the new factors influencing trade patterns. Mixed fortune is also expected on market access considering for the European exporters the Belarus embargo as of January 1st combined with the on- going Russian embargo. For the USA, the effects of counter-sanctions in the Steel and Aluminium dossiers are affecting in particular US exports to distant markets such as India . USA trade is expected to primarily focus in North America to the Mexican and Canadian neighbours. In Asia, all exporters are confronted with increased burdens to access China due to increased COVID related controls and logistics hurdles in the port”. On the global stage, one should consider the role of new players such as Serbia, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, or Iran. China is also developing its export potential with exports now exceeding one million tons on apples, primarily to South East Asian neighbour. Mr Wozniak added: “Overall in the Northern Hemisphere, the local sourcing will remain a priority in many places considering on-going uncertainties on the world market. However, the growth of apple and pear production in the North Hemisphere, in particular in EU neighbourhood and Central Asia, makes it important to continue diversify the variety assortment for taste expected by consumers. Raising the quality and meeting new sustainability expectations of policy and consumers would facilitate a new boost of the consumption of apples and pears. At the same time, the global apple and pear community should continue searching for new opportunities for the apple and pear consumption in many markets around the world”.
WAPA is slated to host Prongosfruit in Belgrade (Serbia) on 10 and 11 August 2022, in cooperation with Serbia Does Apples. Information will be provided end of March 2022 on the Prognosfruit website (www.prognosfruit.eu).
All oranges 46.0 million boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 46.0 million boxes, down 1.0 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 13 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 18.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 28.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Estimates about the 2021/22 orange season in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) have been revised down, due to weather issues in Brazil. Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in September estimated the harvest to be 8.9 % lower than that forecast in the first report, released in May, at 267.87 million boxes. In light of that, the output may be similar to that in the previous season (268.63 million boxes). Although the 2021/22 season is a positive biennial cycle, oranges have been smaller, which explains lower production.
Although the estimates from May considered rainfall below the average, weather issues have increased since then, with frosts and severe drought. Between May and August, rainfall accounted for 30 % of the usual for the period, according to data from Somar/Climatempo Meteorologia (weather forecast agency).
The lack of rains has been damaging majorly the plants in dryland, however, agents from Fundecitrus highlight that even irrigated orchards (which account for 30 % of the trees in the citrus belt) have been debilitated by the drought, due to the limited availability of water at reservoirs. It is important to mention that the scenario has worsened since the frosts in late July.
Besides the smaller size of the oranges, the rate of premature fall of fruits is one of the highest. As the weather is forecast to continue unfavourable until the end of the season, the scenario is not expected to change, raising expectations for low production in 2021/22. Also, the chance of La Niña phenomena to occur until late 2021 is high, which may result in lower rainfall in southeastern Brazil in the second semester. This scenario would limit the growth of late varieties.
INDUSTRY – With the probable lower harvest of oranges in the 2021/22 season, the number of fruits allocated to processors is supposed to be lower too. CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) has not revised processing estimates yet, but Cepea forecasts the industry to purchase around 225 million boxes of oranges (40-8 kilograms each) this season. If this is confirmed and sales of orange juice are near the usual, juice inventories are expected to decrease steeply, to less than 200 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Equivalent), even with higher yield at processing plants, which usually happens in years of low rainfall.
This context will demand high orange production in the 2022/23 season (higher than 330 million boxes) so that ending stocks are replenished with no risk of world shortages. This situation may favor the prices paid to farmers in Brazil.
