Orange1 production forecast update totals 267.87 million boxes
The first 2021-2022 orange crop forecast update for the Sao Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 267.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, differently from the 294.17 million estimated in May this year. The reduction of 26.30 million in relation to the initial expectation corresponds to – 8.9 %. The main reason for this crop loss is the poorer rainfall regime constituting the most severe water crisis ever to hit Brazil for the last 91 years3. The combination of this drought never before experienced by citriculture and successive frosts in July culminated in a gradual crop decline that has been seen as harvests progress and disclose totally atypical figures. Field surveys also show results other than expected for this time of the year for orange planted areas yet to be harvested. In general, oranges are excessively small, and early fruit drop reaches one of its highest rates. These factors make production go back to the same levels of last crop season that totaled 268.63 million boxes, despite fruit load being 12.50 % larger since this is an “on” year. In view of this data and the perspective of climate conditions remaining adverse until harvests end, fruit should present the most critical size and drop rate in historical data. If this scenario is confirmed, there will no longer be an increase in this crop in relation to the previous season, estimated at 9.51 % in May, but rather a smaller volume than the production in the last season (- 0,28 %). …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus. 3National operator of the energy system – ONS. Data for the Parana River basin, encompassing the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Distrito Federal.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has tested the apple industry up and down the supply chain, it has also presented unique opportunities, according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association at the organization’s 126th annual Outlook Conference. Considering these opportunities, and despite a challenging 18 months, apple production is expected to exceed 11 billion pounds this crop year.
USApple’s “Industry Outlook 2021” provides the most up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization and trade. Authored by USApple Director of Industry Analytics Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the many trends and forces – from H-2A labor issues to online grocery shopping – helping to shape the U.S. apple industry.
Production
According to a USApple analysis of Agriculture Department data, total U.S. apple production for the 2021-22 crop year will exceed 11.1 billion pounds or 265.4 million bushels. This represents a 2.7 percent increase compared to 2020-21 crop year production of 258.6 million bushels and is 1.3 percent less than the five-year production average.
Gerlach noted that these figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only looks at the top seven apple-producing states. “We’ve analyzed the production from states outside of the top seven and added that back to USDA’s figure,” explained Gerlach.
At the varietal level, Gala is expected to retain the top spot with almost 49.3 million bushels produced, accounting for around 19 percent of the U.S. apple market. Rounding out the top five are Red Delicious (35.7 m bu), Honeycrisp (31 m bu), Fuji (29.1 m bu) and Granny Smith (27.2 m bu). In comparison, the 2020 top five produced apple varieties were: 1) Gala 2) Red Delicious 3) Fuji 4) Honeycrisp and 5) Granny Smith.
Trade
With respect to fresh apple imports and exports, the U.S. still retains a healthy positive trade balance. In the 2020-21 crop year. the U.S. exported almost 41 million bushels of fresh apples while only importing around 5.2 million bushels. These net exports (35.6 m bu) are valued at almost $773.8 million.
“On a year-over-year basis, while the balance of trade has declined with respect to quantity, it has increased in value,” said Gerlach. “This is primarily being caused by a rapid decline in the value of imports from the 2019-20 crop year, but is also due to some resilience in export values which have not decreased as much relative to export quantities.”
Labor
“Any assessment of the U.S. apple industry must consider the agricultural employment situation,” said Gerlach. “We are losing domestic workers faster than we can replace them and so, increasingly, growers have had to turn to seasonal migrant labor, or H-2A workers, to meet their needs.”
This is a critical issue for the U.S. apple industry because this source of labor is expensive and getting more so. In the Pacific Northwest, for example, the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR), the minimum compensation rate for H-2A labor, has been increasing by more than 5 percent annually for the last 10 years.
From 2014 to 2020, average annual crop production employment fell by 3 percent and, in apple orchards specifically, it declined by 20 percent.
Consumer Trends
“Fortunately, throughout the disruptions brought on by COVID-19, the U.S. apple industry has not seen any considerable decrease in domestic demand,” said Gerlach.
Throughout the pandemic, apple packers and marketers have been quick to respond by offering bagged apples that give consumers added peace of mind by reducing the handling needed to stock and pick the fruit. Also, notes Gerlach, the most significant consumer trend to come out of the pandemic was the rate at which shoppers embraced e-commerce grocery shopping, which also aided the sale of apples. By the first quarter of 2021, e-commerce had grown to account for 3.5 percent of food and beverage store sales at $6.9 billion (up from $1.5 billion in Q1 of 2018 – an increase of more than 377 percent).
“All of these external forces, from labor costs to consumer grocery trends, will continue to shape apple production and utilization throughout the coming years,” said Gerlach.
Prognosfruit’s 2021 European apple and pear crop forecast revealed that while apple production is set to increase by 10 %, the upcoming pear crop is expected to decrease by 28 %. On 5 August 2021, more than 150 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined the Prognosfruit 2021 Online Conference, the second virtual edition of the event in its 46 years, to discuss the 2021 production forecast for apples and pears.
Philippe Binard (Photo: freshfel)
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2021/2022 European apple and pear crop estimate on the occasion of the 46th edition of the Prognosfruit. WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard stated: “The apple production in the EU for the 21 top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated for the 2021/2022 season to be 11.735,000 T. Overall, this year’s crop is estimated to be 10 % higher than last year, but 1 % only up from the 3-year average. It is therefore perceived to be a season with a balanced outlook”.
Philippe Binard added ”While the EU apple crop is larger, the EU pear crop for 2021/2022 is estimated to decrease by 28 % compared to last year to 1.604.000 T and by 27 % compared to the three-year average. This is the smallest decade crop for pears” On the varieties, this translates into a decrease of Conference pear by 18% to 805.000 T. Abate is also impacted with a crop reduced to 66.000 T, down by 73 %”.
WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when available.
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at 390.8 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 15.94 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of seven percent relative to the current season. Although citrus trees are in the on-year of the production cycle, adverse weather notably affected the production potential for the upcoming season. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2020/21 are forecast relatively stable at 1.050 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 18,000 mt vis-à- vis MY 2019/20 …
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is raised 1.0 million boxes to 52.7 million boxes. The total includes 22.7 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 30.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2021-2022 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 27, 2021 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 294.17 million boxes (40.8 kg or 90 lb). Total orange production includes:
51.37 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
16.87 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
84.66 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
107.07 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
34.20 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 26.09 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
As compared to the final forecast of 268.63 million boxes in the previous crop, the current projection represents an increase of 9.51 % although it is still below the average of 35 million boxes for the last ten crop seasons, which corresponds to a drop of 10.53 % …
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged at 51.7 million boxes. If realized, this will be 23 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The forecast consists of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
On 12 May 2021, the World Citrus Organisation celebrated its first Annual Meeting online, following the official creation of the organisation last year. During the AGM, the WCO Secretariat presented the consolidation of the production and export forecasts for the forthcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season 2021. This preliminary forecast is collected from member industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay.
The WCO held its Annual meeting ending a first year of activities. The Co-chairs of the association, Jose Antonio Garcia (Ailimpo) and Justin Chadwick (CGA) agreed to state: “The full first year of operation allowed the organisation to quickly build a representative association and provide the benefits and value to the members”.
During the meeting, the preliminary forecast presented shows that the 2021 citrus Southern Hemisphere crops is expected to reach 22.7 million tons, which represents an increase of 3.18 % compared to the 2020 crop. Export is expected to increase by 12.72 % to 3.8 million tons. Philippe Binard, Secretary General of WCO stated while presenting the data : “following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a positive trend of consumers’ demand for fruit and veg. was noted, in particular for citrus fruit, widely recognised for its high nutritional value, notably in terms of vitamin C content. The large volume available is positive news as it will meet the increased demand”. On the processing side, a total of 13.4 million tonnes of citrus are expected to be destined to the juice market, which constitutes a slight increase of 1.26 % compared to the previous year. It is however worth noting that Brazil’s data provided for the forecast remains preliminary, with the official Brazilian data expected to be confirmed in the coming weeks.
By citrus categories, the soft citrus showed the greatest increase in production, by 10.57 %, with a significant increase in export volumes of over 20 % to 1 million tonnes of export. Orange production remained broadly stable (+ 1.93 %), whilst lemon (+ 2.37 %) and grapefruit (+ 6.44 %) showed greater increases. Exports are also expected to increase for all varieties, orange (+ 11.55 %), lemon (+ 7.20 %) and grapefruit (+ 9.56 %). Eric Imbert (CIRAD- Technical Secretariat of WCO) indicated: “The Southern Hemisphere citrus export continues to grow in particular for lemons and easy peelers. The Southern Hemisphere today represents 27 % of the global citrus market.” During WCO’s AGM, members also reviewed the past season’s results with a focus on the impact of the covid pandemic, and analysed the estimations for the current season.
In addition, during the meeting, Natalia Santos, Deputy Secretary General of WCO announced that: “Members decided to set-up a formal working group on health & nutrition. This will enable better knowledge- exchange among members on citrus nutritional assets and will also contribute towards a better understanding of the health attributes of citrus. The first meeting of WCO’s Health & Nutrition focus group will take place in the second semester of 2021”, she added.
Orange production for the 2020-2021 crop season totaled 268.63 million boxes1
The final 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 12, 2021 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – was 268.63 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lb), which represents a decrease of 6.65 % in relation to the first crop forecast published in May 2020, accounting for a reduction of 19.13 million boxes. This crop had a decrease of 118.16 million boxes in comparison to the previous season, which is equivalent to a volume 30.55 % smaller than that of the 2019-2020 cycle, confirming a record crop loss for all the years in which the crop suffered the physiological effects of the negative biennial production cycle of orange trees since the beginning of the historical series in 1988. Total orange production included:
47.00 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
13.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
81.45 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
91.95 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
34.38 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Approximately 19.33 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.
One of the reasons that explains this substantial crop loss is the fact that orange trees started flowering in the spring of 2019, when reserves were lower because they had been used in the previous crop season when there was a significant yield increase. Decreased reserves led to a significant reduction in the number of fruits per tree in this season, a phenomenon known as alternate bearing. The other reason is the strong negative influence of the climate throughout the season. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 51.7 Million Boxes
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is down 3.80 million boxes to 51.7 million boxes. If realized, this will be 23 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The forecast consists of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
SHAFFE – The Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters will launch its very first Annual Southern Hemisphere Fresh Fruit Trade congress at the 25th of March 2021. With the defining theme “Keeping the world supplied”, this first edition will be dedicated to give exclusive insights and market intelligence on the current production & trading situation for key temperate fruit crop under pandemic conditions with contributions from all eight Southern Hemisphere suppliers: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, Uruguay and South Africa. Southern Hemisphere exporters contribute with 11 million T of exported temperate fruit with a market value of $ 14 billion USD to nearly ¼ of global fruit supply and play a significant role to the availability of healthy food choices.
The 1st virtual Southern Hemisphere Fresh Fruit Trade congress will be taking place at the 25th of March 2021, providing for the first time in the associations history exclusive market insights from all eight big Southern Hemisphere exporting nations with regard to crop trends, production and trade outlook for the year ahead. “We want to contribute towards more predictability and market know-how during these difficult times – and allow our trading partners in the Northern Hemisphere countries better planning for the year ahead”, says passing SHAFFE president Anton Kruger, Fresh Produce Exporters’ Forum (FPEF), South Africa. He adds “We receive many requests to share our market intelligence with a broader public – something we normally had done individually during one of the many annual trade shows throughout the year. This year we are teaming up, to show our common value and how we ensure supply security in our countries!”
“In order, to allow as many of our trading partners in the Northern Hemisphere to participate to the congress, we have decided to run two passages in one day, one at 11.00 am, to target our Asian trading partners and one run-up at 5.00 pm, to allow Northern American and European partners to join. With its globalized trading network, SHAFFE operates in an incredibly unique and international environment – a challenge we are happy to take for the congress!”, says SHAFFE Secretary General Nelli Hajdu. The program will encompass outlook reflections from all SHAFFE member associations (Fedecitrus, Argentinan Blueberry Committee, CAFI, Citrus Australia, Abrafrutas, Chilean Fruit Exporter Association (ASOEX), New Zealand Apple and Pears, ProCitrus, Upefruy, Fruit SA), detailed analysis of global temperate fruit trade developments and insights on changing consumer patterns for fruit consumption and purchase in key markets such as the U.S., China, Germany, U.K. and Russia. The secretariat is working with high speed towards the launch of the program. The registration-link is already open and participation will be free.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop production forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is estimated to increase by 6 % in 2021 compared to the previous year, while pear production is projected to stabilise.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released its 2021 apple and pear crop estimate for the Southern Hemisphere. This report has been compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia) and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. WAPA’s Secretary General Philippe Binard commented on the usefulness of gathering the insights from these major producers: “Elaborating this collective data has previously proved a valuable exercise for the global apple and pear industry and a reliable source of information when the season progressively shifts from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere”.
Regarding apples, the aggregate Southern Hemisphere 2021 crop forecast suggests an increase of 6 % (5.090.000 T) compared to last year (4.818.000 T), with increases in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa of 23 %, 20 % and 6 % respectively, a decrease in New Zealand of 5 %, and stable figures in Argentina and Chile. The aggregate increased by 2 % compared to the average of crops between 2018 and 2020. Chile remains the largest Southern Hemisphere apple producer in 2021 with 1.512 million T, with Brazil in second place (1.130 million T), followed by South Africa (1.013 million T), Argentina (617 million T), New Zealand (547 million T), and Australia (271 million T). Gala remains the main variety (39 %), followed by Fuji (14 %) and Red Delicious (13 %). Export figures are estimated to stabilise at 1.691.562 T, with stable figures for Chile (650.773 T), a 4 % increase for South Africa (476.000 T), and a 7 % decrease for New Zealand (372.000 T).
Southern Hemisphere 2021 apple production (Photo: WAPA)
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a stabilisation of the crop at 1.346.000 T and an increase of 2 % compared to the overall average of years 2018-2020. The increase in South Africa, Australia, and Argentina of 3 %, 2 %, and 1 % respectively are expected to compensate for the 3 % and the 10 % decrease in Chile and New Zealand. As in previous years, Packham’s Triumph and Williams BC/Bartlett are the major varieties, with 36 % and 28 % respectively. Forecasted export figures for pears are reported to increase by 6 % compared to the previous year and reach 708.690 T, with a 12 % increase for Argentina (373.996 T), a 2 % increase for South Africa (214.361 T), and a 3 % decrease for Chile (108.315 T).
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 269.01 million boxes
The 2020-2021 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 10, 2021 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 269.01 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs). Approximately 19.27 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in West Minas Gerais.
In this third update on a downward trend, the crop accumulates a decrease of 6.52 % in relation to the initial estimate. In comparison to the previous crop, the reduction is 30.45 %, the worst index of all years in which the crop also withstood the physiological effects of the negative biennial bearing. This crop loss, unprecedented in the history of citriculture, evidences the severity of climatic issues in this season, although production losses due to orange trees that died from drought before harvest have not yet been included. The number of dead trees and fruit unharvested is being determined by a sample survey encompassing 5 % of plots distributed throughout the citrus belt, aiming to update the tree inventory for the next crop season. The reduction in production of the 2020-2021 cycle, caused by this atypical tree mortality, will be presented on the final crop estimate of April 12, 2021. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
In general, citrus prices were high in São Paulo State in 2020. With the lower orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season due to bad weather conditions, the demand from processors for fruits continued high along the year, which underpinned prices.
According to a report released by Fundecitrus on December 10, crop failure in the citrus belt (SP and the Triângulo Mineiro) should be the worst since 1988/1989, when the series began. In total, orange production should be 30 % lower in the 2020/21 season, totaling 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kilos each.
INDUSTRIAL PRICES – Although processors began the 2020/21 season with high volumes of juice stocked – 471 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, according to CitrusBR –, low orange supply kept the demand for fruits high, which reflects on bidding prices.
On the average of the 2020/21 season, prices in the spot market between July and November closed at 23.51 BRL/box, 17.8 % up from that in the same period of 2019 and 7 % above that in the same period of 2018, in nominal terms.
IN NATURA MARKET – Higher demand from the industry lowered the availability of fruits in the in natura market, since some farmers who usually sell to the in natura market preferred to allocate their fruits to processors, due to the uncertainties caused by the covid-19 pandemic and the attractive prices bid by processors. This scenario added to the weather issues and high demand pushed up orange prices (in natura) all the year. For the variety pera rio, prices hit the highest level of the year in November, when the average was 43.35 BRL/box, on tree, 54.6 % up from that in Nov/19, in nominal terms.
All Oranges 56.0 Million Boxes
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 56.0 million boxes, down 2 percent from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 17 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 22.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 34.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 269.36 million boxes
The 2020-2021 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 –, is 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. The first forecast update, published in September, already showed a drop as compared to the initial projection, but the expected production was significantly hindered by late rainfall in the spring and intense heat. In this second forecast update, a decrease of 18.40 million boxes represents a drop of 6.39 % in relation to the initial forecast. Should this new projection hold true until harvest ends, it will result in the largest crop loss for the citrus belt since the beginning of the historical series in 1988-1989 and a downturn of 30.36 % in comparison to the previous crop season. Approximately 19.35 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in West Minas Gerais.
A poor outlook for rainfall was expected in 2020 due to the possibility of the climate event La Niña forming, which was officially confirmed in September. However, other phenomena, such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, simultaneously contributed to less rainfall and increased temperatures that reached unprecedented levels in several regions of the citrus belt. Consequently, the effects on groves resulting from adverse weather conditions this year were much worse as compared to those observed during the last La Niña, between November 2017 and April 2018. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
There is a saying among those who have been in the industry for a long time: “there is no harvest like the other”. The current one is overcoming itself; such are the difficulties faced.
The first signs that the season would be different were given by last year’s bloom. Blooming in August and September 2019 was very good. However, a period with no rain in the following months accompanied by intense heat has caused an expressive fruitlet fall. The fruits developed until a 2-3 cm diameter size but were overturned by excessive heat. Rains came up in the end of October and a new flowering is expected.
The harvest season was preceded by the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic. The great demand for labor, much of it coming from northeastern states in the country, concerned everyone and made us take extraordinary care to preserve the health of workers involved in the harvest and of other collaborators from other sectors of the properties.
Thus, the current harvest has been one of great surprises and has presented unusual challenges to citrus growers of the Brazilian citrus belt. The main consequences are presented below.
The period without rain, from May of this year until this last month of October, was one of the most extensive ever recorded in the state of São Paulo, according to the graphs and tables below. In addition to drought, very high maximum temperatures were recorded, even at night, causing considerable weight loss and lower fruit quality. The water deficit was very significant in all regions. This is the main reason for the significant decrease in the volume of fruit produced in the “citrus belt”. The losses are more accentuated in the north of the state of São Paulo and in the Triângulo Mineiro, warmer and drier regions.
However, even further south in the state, losses were above normal. The first harvest estimate released by Fundecitrus, last May, brought an amount of 287.8 million boxes, 25% less than the previous harvest (2019/2020). What you see in the field is a volume of oranges quite below that number. The common perception among consulted technicians and citrus growers is that the final figure is expected to be below 250 million, perhaps below that.
The period without rain and with temperatures well above the average resulted in extremely withered orchards – plants even died in orchards without irrigation. Another aggravating factor this year was the scarcity of water for irrigation. There are properties that have an installed irrigation structure; however, they do not have enough water available to meet the needs of the plants.
Due to the flowering in non-traditional months (December and January) there are a large number of “green”, not yet ripe fruits mixed with ripe fruits from the normal flowering (August-September 2019). This brings an additional difficulty to the harvesting operation that has to be carried out in at least two different times, resulting in an increase of the production cost for the citrus growers.
This mix of fruits with different level of ripeness, impair the quality of the juices, especially due to the greater amount of limonin present in the green peels of oranges. On the other hand, in the northern regions of the citrus belt, the fruits are getting ripe much faster than normal, producing juices with a ratio (ratio between the amount of sugars divided to acidity) much higher than the average for the period of the year. Industrial income has been better this year than in the previous two years, at least until this time of the harvest (November 2020).
As a further consequence of this year’s climate events, we will see an increase in the effects of HLB or greening. The symptoms of the disease, such as early fruit fall and low production, usually express themselves more strongly when there is a water deficit. In addition, the psilideo, vector of the disease, presented very high rates even in winter, indicating that we will have a greater number of infected plants in the next years. This has probably occurred because of the warmer climate which resulted in a very irregular or uneven plant vegetation.
What can we expect from the next crop?
The northernmost regions only flourished after the rains that fell in the last days of October. This late blooming should not have a good fruit set because they will be still small in the higher summer temperatures. Moreover, the loss of leaves was very great in the recent drought period, and this will not allow for a large amount of fruit for the next season, since the plant will not be able to provide the metabolites necessary for an expressive fruit set. A good 21/22 harvest is not to be expected for these regions.
In the most southern regions, which suffered less from water deficit, the flowering came in the normal period, between August and September. However, irregular rainfall and high winter temperatures (table 2), after flowering, have worried producers. What they see in their orchards does not indicate a good harvest for the second year in a row. My experience shows that the harvest after a year as irregular as this one is also not usually good.
Price of juice should go up
Although it is common for citrus to have alternate crops, i.e., smaller crops followed by larger crops, the climatic factors presented in this article should result in two “small” crops in a row, the current and the next seasons.
Thus, Brazilian orange juice industries should process fewer oranges for two consecutive years. This reduction in supply, combined with the growing demand for juices in times of pandemic, should cause increases in the price of juices on the international market.
Mauricio Mendes is a citrus consultant sine 1980 and Citrus grower since 1988. Has worked to major Citrus Farms in Brazil. Is COO of a 6.000 ha Citrus Farms operation in the SW od Sao Paulo State. Mauricio is also Beachead Advisor for New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE) . Also has been partner and CEO, for 14 years, of Informa FNP which is one of the most important Agribusiness consultant company in Brazil. FNP was recently acquired by IHS Markit. Mauricio is also member of GCONCI (Citrus Farming Consultants Group) which gathers 17 Consultants. GCONCI provide direct technical assistance to over 40 million citrus plants (25 % of the Brazilian Citrus Belt)
*Araraquara and Itapetininga are major production citrus regions in São Paulo State.
The WCO Secretariat has released its first crop production forecast for the forthcoming Northern Hemisphere citrus season 2020-21. The preliminary forecast is collected from industry associations in Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey and the United States (California and Florida).
The preliminary forecast shows that the 2020-21 citrus Northern Hemisphere crop is expected to reach 28.737.570 T, which represents a decrease of slight decrease of 1 % compared to the 2019 crop. This decreased volume is the result of alternance in some countries compared to last year, as well as the impact of the droughts recorded in several production regions in the Northern Hemisphere.
By citrus categories, most categories showed decreases in production. Orange is expected to decrease by 2 %, lemon by 7 % and grapefruit by 9 %. The only category increasing production volumes compared to the previous year is soft citrus (+5 %). Looking at production by region, European production is expected to experience an increase in volume, with 12 % increases recorded for both Italy and Spain, respectively, and a 1 % decrease for Greece. In the Southern rim of the Mediterranean, crop forecasts for Egypt (-8 %), Israel (- 4 %) and Turkey (-15 %) have been lowered compared to 2019 volumes. On the other hand, Morocco and Tunisia forecast increases in their citrus crops this year, by 13 % and 20 % respectively compared to 2019 figures. On its side, the United States production is expected to decrease by 9 % compared to the precedent year, with California lowering its forecast by 5 % and Florida by 14 %.
WCO will present this forecast during the first edition of the Global Citrus Congress, which the World Citrus Organisation is co-organising with Fruitnet. The Congress with an expected attendance of more than 1.000 delegates will be the perfect opportunity to presents these latest global production figures and trade trends, as well as the importance of sustainability in citrus production and of nutrition and promotion to increase global citrus consumption.
WCO Members are ABCM- Associação Brasileira de Citrus de Mesa (Brazil), Ailimpo – Asociación Interprofesional de Limón y Pomelo (Spain), AKIB – Mediterranean Fresh Fruit and Vegetables Exporters Association (Turkey), Citrus Australia (Australia), Citrus Growers’ Association (South Africa), Chilean Citrus Committee (Chile), Fruitimpresse (Italy), Moroccan Interprofessional Citrus Federation – Maroc Citrus (Morocco), Plant Production Marketing Board (Israel), Procitrus – Asociacion de Productores de Citricos del Peru (Peru), Upefruy – Unión de Productores y Exportadores de Fruta del Uruguay (Uruguay). WCO Associated Members are AgroFresh (Spain), AM FRESH Group (Spain), Citrusvil (Argentina), Easyfresh Logistics (Spain), FruitOne (South Africa), G.F. Marketing (South Africa), Janssen Preservation and Material Protection (Belgium), MAFA-Magrabi Agriculture (Egypt), Morocco Foodex (Morocco), Oranfrizer (Italy), PCN (USA), River Front Packing (USA), San Miguel Global (South Africa) and Zalar Agri-Agricole Centre (Morocco).
Prognosfruit’s 2020 European apple and pear crop forecast revealed that most European countries are expecting an overall stable apple and pear crop for the coming season. On 6 August 2020, more than 150 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined the Prognosfruit 2020 Online Conference, the first ever virtual version of the event in its 45 years to discuss the 2020 forecast.
During the conference, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2020 European apple and pear crop estimate. In 2020, the apple production in the EU for the 21 top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated to be just slightly below last year’s result, with a 1 % decrease and a crop of 10.711,000 T. Overall, this year’s crop is estimated to be 4 % lower than the 3- year average. On the other hand, the EU pear crop for 2020 is estimated to increase by 12 % compared to last year to 2.199.000 T. However, a revision of some of the figures presented at Prognosfruit is to be expected in the upcoming weeks. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when appropriate.
The virtual conference featured a presentation of the forecast for apples and pears by WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard, a market analysis by AMI Market Analyst Helwig Schwartau, an overview of the latest trends in processing by Austria Juice CEO Franz Ennser and for organic by Europäisches Bioobst-Forum President Fritz Prem, as well as two panel discussions for apples and pears respectively.
Earlier this year, the Prognosfruit 2020 organisers announced the cancellation of the event, scheduled to take place in Belgrade (Serbia), due to the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, due to popular demand the event was rescheduled as a a virtual conference. Belgrade will now host Prognosfruit in 2021 instead.
(Photo: WAPA)
All Oranges 67.7 Million Boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 67.7 million boxes, down 3 percent from the May forecast. The total includes 29.7 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 38.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 69.7 Million Boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 69.7 million boxes, down 1 percent from the April forecast. If realized, this will be 3 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The total includes 29.7 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 40.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Crop loss of 25.6 % in relation to previous crop is due to lower nutrient reserves in plants and adverse climatic conditions
The 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is estimated at 287.76 million boxes of 40,8 kg, according to the online announcement made May 11 by Fundecitrus. This number is 25.6 % smaller than the previous crop of 386.79 million boxes, and 12.5 % below the average crop size for the last 10 years. Approximately 20.56 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
Expected yield is estimated at 790 boxes per hectare, as compared to the 1,045 boxes per hectare in the previous crop.
“It is a small crop, considering the productive potential of groves, but that is due to the biennial production cycle of orange trees”, explains Fundecitrus general manager Juliano Ayres. “Since the previous crop was large, nutrient reserves this year are smaller. In addition, climatic conditions were adverse during fruit setting and the first phase of fruit growth”, he states.
Influence of the climate and late blooms
Crop loss was caused by a reduced number of fruits per tree in comparison to the previous crop. The large production in the previous season increased the consumption of nutrient reserves in plants, which became scarce and triggered the phenomenon known as alternate bearing. Furthermore, the climate was also a negative influence: high temperatures in September and October 2019 affected the setting of newly formed fruit.
Adverse climatic conditions were also seen in March and April 2020, affecting fruit at a more advanced stage of development. According to data from Somar Meteorologia, the accumulated rainfall volume in that period was not even half the historical average (1981-2010), which restricted fruit growth.
245.15 million boxes of the estimated production are of fruit from the first and second blooms (85.2 % of the total), 34.64 million boxes are of fruit from the third bloom (12 %) and 7.97 million boxes are of fruit from the fourth bloom (2.8 %).
Dry weather in March and April 2020 restricted the growth of fruits that should still be small at harvest. Oranges are expected to weigh 159 grams at harvest.
Alternate bearing in regions
Yield per sector this crop season, as compared to last year’s, shows significant variations among locations. The Northwest sector, encompassing the regions of Votuporanga and São José do Rio Preto, ranks first in yield drop. 492 boxes per hectare expected to be produced in that sector represent a drop of 46.7 % in relation to the 2019-2020 crop. Next comes the North sector (regions of Triângulo Mineiro, Bebedouro and Altinópolis), with an expected yield of 686 boxes per hectare (-35.9 %); then the Central sector (regions of Matão, Duartina and Brotas), with 721 boxes expected per hectare (-30.1 %); the South sector (regions of Porto Ferreira and Limeira), with 781 boxes expected per hectare (-16.5 %); and the Southwest (regions of Avaré and Itapetininga), where 1.185 boxes should be harvested per hectare (-2.7 %) (see the graph below).
“The greater drop in yield expected for this current crop, the larger the increment observed in the previous crop. This is one evidence of the biennial production cycle of orange trees, showing that usually the fruit load one year is inversely proportional to the fruit load in the previous year, causing variations in yield per hectare that alternate with the crop seasons”, analyzes PES coordinator Vinícius Trombin. “But the main reason for crop fluctuations is the climatic change that often occurs from one year to the next. In regions with more stable climate, such as Avaré and Itapetininga, yield variations are smaller”, adds the survey coordinator.
Recovery of orange juice consumption
The São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is the largest worldwide producer of orange for processing. According to PES methodological coordinator and Professor at USP and FGV Marcos Fava Neves, the 2020-2021 crop and the inventory volume are now balanced due to the recovery of the demand for juice, heated up in major markets as a result of the COVID-10 pandemic.
“In view of an attempt to boost immunity, the citrus sector sees an increasing consumption of orange juice. It is an extremely nutritious liquid food”, he states.
Citriculture and sustainability
This year, based on methodology developed by Embrapa Territorial, PES has estimated the area of conserved woods on citrus farms: 182 thousand hectares throughout the citrus belt. On average, there is one hectare dedicated to conservation on farms for every 2.52 hectares of citrus groves. Data was obtained from cross-checking the information collected in the field by Fundecitrus with data from the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR).
“This work shows the important role of citriculture in environmental conservation and biodiversity, with large conserved areas integrated within farms”, says Trombin.
Methodology
For the estimate, orange trees were counted one by one in 2,557 plots and fruits from 1,590 trees were harvested throughout the citrus belt. “The reduced number of samples due to COVID-19 caused minor impact in the general survey result, which can be verified by the error of ±2.65% in the average number of fruits per tree”, PES methodology analyst and Professor at the department of engineering, math and science at FCAV/Unesp José Carlos Barbosa states.
The Crop Forecast Survey is carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, school of economics, business administration and accounting (FEA) of the university of São Paulo (USP) and the “Júlio de Mesquita” school of agricultural science and veterinary medicine (FCAV) of the São Paulo state university (Unesp).
Orange supply should continue to increase in São Paulo State in April. Although some oranges among the early varieties were traded in March, this month, availability should grow, offsetting the low supply of pear oranges in the market. Still, supply should not be considered high, since flower settlement in the first flowerings was reduced.
Thus, the upward trend of orange prices, observed until March, has been interrupted. Demand, in turn, should be affected (positively and negatively) by the covid-19 pandemic – on the one hand, citrus fruits are supposed to strengthen immunity, on the other hand, the demand for school meals, company meals and from food services should continue low.
It is also important to mention that the oranges from SP should reach the ideal maturation stage this month, which may allow these fruits to stay longer on trees while demand is low. However, growers tend to opt for closing deals at this time of the year, before availability grows too much (possibly pressing down quotes), from May.
Besides, crushing is currently at a slow pace at the processing plants from SP, and should step up again only in May, when early varieties start to be crushed. Thus, this month, oranges should be allocated exclusively to the in natura market and small-sized processors. However, as the market has been oscillating and uncertain, due to the changes caused by the pandemic, orange prices may rise again, changing the scenario forecast by growers.
TAHITI LIME – As the fruits from the second flowering have ripened, supply should continue high between April and early May. Quality should be high, reflecting the regular rains in March. Still, it should be lower than that available in the first quarter of the year (crop peak period). In this scenario, a considerable supply with fruits within the required standard may continue to favor exports if international demand keeps firm.
In the first quarter of 2020, the Brazilian exports of lemon and lime were records for the period. According to data from Secex, Brazil shipped 34.7 thousand tons of these fruits, a staggering 46 % up compared to that in the same period last year. Revenue, in turn, totaled 25.9 million USD in January, February and March, 42 % higher in the same comparison.
Orange production for the 2019-2020 crop season totals 386.79 million boxes1
The final 2019-2020 orange crop forecast for São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 09, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 386.79 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which represents a decrease of 0.54 % in relation to the first crop forecast carried out in May 2019 of 388.89 million boxes. This crop is 35.3 % larger in comparison to the previous season (2018-2019), when 285.98 million boxes were produced, evidencing the biennial production cycle of orange trees, that is, larger crops alternated with smaller ones. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
Orange crushing in the 2019/20 crop slowed down in the first fortnight of March at most of the processors in São Paulo State, due to the low supply in the Brazilian citrus belt. Currently, only one plant (in Araraquara) among the three large-sized processors is crushing oranges, primarily early pera rio and late varieties (natal and folha murcha). As usual, this plant should keep activities going until the crushing beginning for the 2020/21 crop.
Besides the lower orange supply, the quality of the fruits allocated to the industry is below the expected. Although yield is considered satisfactory this season, it has been affected by the frequent rains in the first two months of 2020.
BRAZILIAN SPOT MARKET – As both supply and quality decreased in the first fortnight of March, the prices paid for oranges dropped – the quotes paid for the fruits harvested and delivered at processing plants averaged 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box in the first half of the month, against 20.00 BRL/box in February.
At smaller-sized processors, remuneration ranged from 18 BRL to 24 BRL per box, according to yield and quality (the processors that make fresh juice were paying higher prices for the fruits).
As regards the oranges from the 2020/21 crop, sales have not started yet – opposite to the scenario in the two previous seasons, when, between October and November, agents from plants started to bid in order to close deals. Uncertainties about the output in the 2020/21 season may be hampering price fixing by processors – it is worth to mention that production estimates should only be released in May.
MARCH – The firmer weather in tahiti lime producing regions favored the harvesting of the variety in the first fortnight of March, which, added to the lower demand from both the international market and domestic processing plants (since a large-sized processors has ended activities), pressed down quotes in that period. Between March 2 and 13, tahiti lime prices averaged 9.86 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 7.9 % down compared to that in the first half of February.
As regards oranges, sales increased in that period, while supply decreased. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for late oranges, which should increase the share of early oranges in the total volume traded this month. In general, the harvesting pace is expected to be slow for these varieties, which may underpin orange quotes in the in natura market. In the first fortnight of March, pear orange prices averaged 34.86 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.7 % up compared to that in the same period of the previous month.
PONKAN TANGERINE – The harvesting of ponkan tangerine started in late February in the citrus producing regions from São Paulo State – despite the slow pace. Supply (mainly of higher quality ponkan tangerine) should only increase from the second fortnight of March, when the variety starts to reach the ideal maturation to be traded in the in natura market.
Some growers harvested ponkan tangerine before the ideal maturation for trading, aiming to take advantage of the attractive price levels and the offseason period for pear and late oranges from the 2019/20 crop.
Agents expect the volume of ponkan tangerine to be lower than that in the previous season, based on the dry weather between September and October – when fruits were developing – and on the lower vegetative vigor of plants, after a large crop. In general, production was low in the last years, with well-distributed and sparse crops.
This season, fruits quality should be lower than in 2019, due to the weather. Frequent and high rains in the first two months of 2020 favored the incidence of fungal diseases and rotting after the harvesting.
All Oranges 71.0 Million Boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 71.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be down 1 percent from last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 30.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 41.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 384.87 million boxes
The 2019/2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro/Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 384.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.11 % in relation to the previous forecast update published in December 2019 and is 1.03 % smaller as compared to the first crop forecast announced in May 2019. Approximately 26.85 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Rainfall remained below normal for most of the citrus belt from May 2019 to January 2020, according to data from Somar Meteorologia. Accumulated rainfall in this period averaged 836 millimeters for all regions, which is 14% or 139 millimeters below the historical average of 975 millimeters (1981-2010). Rainfall shortage was more pronounced in the Central, South and Southwest sectors, including regions such as Limeira, where the accumulated amount was only 690 millimeters, that is, 33% or 341 millimeters below normal. …
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2 Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
Higher production estimates for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2019/20 season were confirmed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in a report released on Dec. 10. Although estimates were 0.8 % lower than that reported in September, data indicate that the current crop should be 34.7 % larger than the previous, totaling 385.31 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges.
According to Fundecitrus, new estimates were based on the lower rains in the citrus belt in 2019 (from May to November). With lower rains and high production, the size of the oranges produced in the citrus belt is shrinking – from 260 fruits per box, estimated by Fundecitrus in May, to 262 in December, 0.77 % down. As regards the drop rate, new estimates increased from 17.60 % to 17.63 %, on average, considering all citrus varieties. If the drop rate remains at this level until the end of the crop, it will be the highest in all times, based on data from Fundecitrus.
Still according to the report, the harvesting of pera rio oranges has already reached 85 %, against 50 % for valencia and folha murcha varieties. Natal orange harvesting, in turn, has totaled 45 % so far. As regards the total volume harvested, 74 % of the 2019/20 crop has been harvested, against 78 % in the same period last season.
This scenario indicates that, although estimates point to a smaller amount of late oranges this year – due to fruitlet losses in December/18 and lower flower settlement in mid-January/19 –, low supply, which is usual at the beginning of the year, may be postponed. The end of pear orange supply has been reported by Brazilian citrus farmers, but there still are some amounts of late oranges (mainly natal) available to be harvested in December and January.
Thus, based on the higher volume forecast for the current crop, agents from processors believe orange crushing will not be interrupted between a crop and the other – although the crushing pace may be slower than that in 2019/20. It is worth to mention that the crushing pace has been fast at processors since the beginning of activities this year, reaching 100 % of the capacity in almost all plants.
MARKET IN BRAZIL – Despite the nearness of the holiday season, when the demand for citrus fruits usually decreases, farmers reported firm demand in the first fortnight of December. According to agents, this scenario may be linked to the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid.
As regards tahiti lime, quotes have been dropping, due to growing supply. According to Cepea collaborators, the supply of small-sized fruits is still high in the market of São Paulo State.
All Oranges 74.0 Million Boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 74.0 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 3 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of
32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 42.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 385.31 million boxes
The 2019-2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 385.31 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.80 % in relation to the previous update published in September 2019, and of 0.92 % compared to the first estimate of the crop, disclosed in May 2019. Out of the total crop, about 26.88 million boxes are estimated for the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Heavy rains in November on virtually the entire citrus belt eased the drought, but since May total rainfall stood at 17 % below the historical average (1981-2010): 409 millimeters in the average across regions, while historical average is 495 millimeters, according to data from Somar Meteorologia. The driest period was at the beginning of the crop season, from May to August, when the negative deviation reached 32 % in relation to the climatological standard normal. Although rains resumed in the first week of September, this followed a two-week window of dry weather on most of the belt, which characterized the occurrence of an Indian summer. It was not until mid-October that the rainy season began to set in, although the monthly accumulated rainfall rate was still below average. In November, rainfall was abundant and well distributed throughout the month, with accumulations ranging from 95 to 265 millimeters among the citrus belt regions. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal
The 2019-2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 388.42 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.12 % in relation to the estimate published in May/2019. Approximately 27,14 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha andNatal. 2Departamentof Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
The 2019 European apple and pear crop forecast estimates that most European countries are expecting a rather low apple and pear crop for the coming season. On 8 August 2019, close to 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met at the Prognosfruit Conference in Alden Biesen, Belgium. During the conference, the 2019 European apple and pear crop estimate was released. This year, the apple production in the EU is set at 10.5 million T as a result of climatic events and the alternation of last year’s bumper crop. This is a decrease of 20 % compared to last year’s record high crop and of 8 % compared to the average crop of the three previous years. The pear crop is predicted at 2 million T, a decrease of 14 % compared to 2018. Nevertheless, comparisons with previous years need to be handled with much caution, given last two years’ exceptional variation.
Apart from crop alternation after a bumper, this year’s crop estimation has been influenced by several factors, including in particular a mild winter, a cold and wet May, late frost, a sunny and warm June, heat wave and drought in July, abrupt changes in temperature, and low blossoming. However, these events were scattered, and their impact differs significantly between regions. Additionally, for pear, the overall low figure is mainly due to a decrease in estimation of Italian pears which caused the overall forecast to be the second lowest of the decade. The drop was mainly the result of low blossoming, influenced by the high crop, heat of last season and rain.
A general comment for apple is that the crop in the Eastern part of the EU has been affected by the cold snap in May, with losses of 44 % of last year’s record high in Poland. In most apple producing countries, however, there were moderate decreases or stabilisation of the crop. France, Spain and Portugal are recording an increase of their crop. In terms of quality, there might be issues with sunburn and sizing. For pear, there are estimations of moderate to more serious decreases in all major pear producing countries, except for a small increase in Spain. Overall, there are still overhanging stocks on the market, but the late start of the season by up to two weeks might contribute to a better balance of the market.
The crop estimation needs to be held against a complex market situation, given the ongoing consequences of an increasingly more challenging global trading environment. Therefore, efforts to boost consumption need to be continued. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when appropriate.
Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent decreased 19 % in the 2018/19 crop – compared to the previous season), as expected. Between July/18 and June/19, shipments totaled only 982.24 thousand tons, according to Secex. As for the revenue, it totaled 1.8 billion USD, 19 % down in the same comparison.
The volume exported from Brazil in the 18/19 season was the second smallest in the last 20 years of Secex historical series, only larger than that from 2016/17, when the Brazilian citrus belt harvested a small crop – which, in turn, resulted in the lowest inventory of all times, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters).
The bad performance in 2018/19 was linked to two factors: lower orange supply in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and a decrease in the international demand, mainly from the United States. Lower exports, however, prevented juice inventories at Brazilian processing plants from decreasing to critical levels at the end of the season (June 30 2019).
According to a report from CitrusBR, in June/19, inventories at Brazilian processing plants closed at only 224.51 thousand tons, which is considered low compared to that in recent years – inventories in June/19 were only lower than in 2010/11 and in 2016/17.
Brazilian shipments to the United States decreased a steep 38 % compared to that last season, totaling only 196.4 thousand tons. Revenue, in turn, dropped 39 %, to 340.96 million USD. Besides lower consumption in America, this result is linked to expectations for a crop recovery in Florida in 2018/19. According to a report from the USDA released today, July 11th, Florida should harvest 71.6 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, 59 % more than in 2017/18.
To the European Union, the biggest importer of the Brazilian orange juice, shipments totaled 643.74 thousand tons, 11% down compared to that last season. Revenue, in turn, reached 1.19 billion USD, 9 % down in the same comparison.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The cold weather in São Paulo State reduced citrus consumption in the first fortnight of July. According to Cepea collaborators, despite the occasional frosts in some producing regions (mainly in southwestern SP), there were no losses at orchards. Between July 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 18.07 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, stable (-0.05 %) compared to that between June 1 and 15.
Concerning tahiti lime, besides lower supply (due to the harvesting end for the fruits produced in the first semester of 2019), rains pushed up quotes in the first half of July. Between July 1 and 15, tahiti lime quotes averaged 25.19 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a staggering 84.5 % up compared to that in the same period of the previous month.
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is now 71.6 million boxes. The total is comprised of 30.4 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 41.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 200,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.51 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 770,000 boxes are white and 3.74 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 990,000 boxes. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Wageningen University & Research (WUR) and Tencent, will organise the 2nd edition of its International Autonomous Greenhouse Challenge in which multidisciplinary teams from around the world will use artificial intelligence to remotely produce vegetables. The goal is to explore how artificial intelligence (AI) can produce greenhouse grown vegetables more efficiently and effectively.
In the future more greenhouses will be needed to produce food. Autonomous greenhouses and remote digital farming can help feed more people with vitamin and mineral rich produces, increase food security and produce more vegetables with fewer resources such as water and energy. Significant advances are being made in automation, information technology and artificial intelligence, which will help growers to better analyse and process information and make better decisions.
Production of a cherry tomato crop within six months
WUR and Tencent invite artificial intelligence and horticultural experts to participate in the second edition of the International Autonomous Greenhouse Challenge, which begins this autumn. The goal of the challenge is to produce a cherry tomato crop within 6 months with high quality, high productivity and high resource efficiency in greenhouses of WUR, the Netherlands, remotely. Teams will get their own greenhouse compartment and make choices with respect to the control settings of greenhouse actuators and crop management in order to control the tomato production and quality remotely. Teams can also add their own sensors/cameras to generate additional information. Each team will be able to extract data from their greenhouse compartment and couple it to their own machine learning algorithms to decide on the control settings for the next day/period. They will also send the control settings back to the system so it can control the actuators automatically or send instructions for crop handling to reach a pre-defined goal. WUR will continuously measure performance criteria per compartment and share them with each team and the public.
Artificial Intelligence algorithms to control cucumber production
During the first edition of the Autonomous greenhouse challenge in 2018, five international teams were challenged to control a greenhouse cucumber production during a four-month period with their artificial intelligence algorithms. The first edition resulted in a successful benchmark experiment demonstrating that these algorithms can control greenhouse climate, irrigation and crop growth remotely. The winning team outperformed experienced manual growers.
Who can join?
Teams must consist of experts with a proven background in different fields such as artificial intelligence, sensor technology, crop physiology and horticultural production. Companies and start-ups are invited as well as scientists and students. Team must include at least three members. At least one team member must be a student. WUR and Tencell encourage teams from all countries to participate.
How to join?
Registration will be open from 22 May – 15 July 2019. Information on the International Autonomous Greenhouse Challenge and how to register can be found at www.autonomousgreenhouses.com
Florida Orange and Grapefruit production both decreased by 500,000 boxes in the April U.S. Department of Agriculture crop forecast.
The report projects Florida Orange production for the 2018-19 season at 76.5 million boxes after a slight decline in Non-Valencia orange production. Florida Grapefruit production is now estimated at 4.9 million boxes.
“We’re an industry catching glimpses of recovery, but this estimate certainly points out that we are not there yet,” said Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. “It’s still a great year, but we are anxious for better.”
The numbers remain an increase from the previous season, devastated by Hurricane Irma, when production dropped to 45.05 million boxes of Florida Oranges and 3.88 million boxes of Florida Grapefruit.
Final orange1crop forecast totals285.98 million boxes
The 2018-2019 final orange crop forecast for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 285.98 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which is 28.2 % smaller in comparison to the previous crop (2017-2018) of 398.35 million boxes, and 11.6 % below the crop average in the last ten years3. The survey’s data show that final production was 0.8 % smaller than the initial projection carried out in May 2018, of 288.29 million boxes. Final crop total includes:
50.70 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
14.66 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
79.12million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
107.91 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
33.59million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 16.02 million boxes of the finalcrop were produced in West Minas Gerais.
This crop season, adverse weather conditions in the citrus belt, with the exception of the Southwest region, resulted in a lower yield in groves. Irregular climate in the crop season set in back in 2017 with delayed spring rains, which caused orange trees to bloom late. High temperatures after flowering hindered fruit set, ultimately reducing the number of oranges per tree.
During fruit development and harvesting from May 2018 to March 2019, the accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 1,295 millimeters, which is 3 % below historical average (1981-2010), according to data from Somar Meteorologia.The months of May 2018 to July 2018 were drier than expected, with rainfall well below average. With decreased rainfall, fruit size did not reach the average 256 fruits per box (159 grams per fruit) projected in May 2018. Threefruits above projection were necessary to fill a 40.8 kg box. Therefore, the final average size for all varieties was 259 fruits per box (158 grams per fruit). The deviation between final average size (April 2019) and projected size (May 2018) was small, although deviation for each variety was more significant due to irregular rainfall distribution and fruit harvesting time. …
2Department of Math and ScienceatFCAV/Unesp, Jaboticabal Campus.
3Average production for the last decade is of 323.34 million boxes. Data for crops 2008/2009 to 2014/2015 supplied by orange juice companies associated to Fundecitrus –Citrosuco, Cutrale and Louis Dreyfus, which, individually, have estimated their crop for the citrus planted area since 1988, through objective methodology. Data for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 crops supplied by Fundecitrus.
The harvesting of the oranges out of the ideal period from the 2018/19 crop was ending in São Paulo State in March, while the availability of the first early oranges from the new season (2019/20) was increasing, helping to supply the market.
Although still low, the availability of the first oranges from the 19/20 crop in the market limited the upward trend of pear orange quotes, observed in the first two months of the year. In March, pear orange quotes averaged 42.23 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 3.8 % up compared to that in February.
However, most of the early oranges from 2019/20 had not reached the ideal maturation stage demanded in the in natura market, which limited new deals. Concerning the pear and late oranges remaining from the 2018/19 season, only a few growers still had available amounts to sell in the in natura market – and, in general, lower quality also hampered trades.
The low supply scenario in the offseason period resulted from the lower production (almost 30 %) in the citrus belt in 2018/19 – estimated by Fundecitrus at only 284.88 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, according to the report released in February. Thus, in March, pear orange quotes increased sharply compared to the same period last year (in nominal terms): a staggering 46.3 %.
For April (mainly the second fortnight), the agents consulted by Cepea expect the supply of all varieties from the 2019/20 to increase, based on the possible favorable weather to the development of the fruits that are still on tree. Besides, it is worth to remember that crushing is currently at a slow pace at the processing plants from SP, which should allocate all the fruits available to the in natura market in April.
TAHITI LIME – As for tahiti lime, international demand helped to lower supply in the Brazilian market in March. Thus, quotes averaged 16.87 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, last month, 11.7 % up compared to that in February.
Demand from processing plants was low and the availability of fruits from the second blossoming was gradually increasing, which may press down quotes in April, mainly in the second fortnight – if the weather favors fruits growth.
According to tradition, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting on the last day of the Fruit Logistica fair in Berlin, 8 February 2019. Representatives of the key global apple and pear producing and exporting countries met to discuss the Southern Hemisphere production forecast, the final update of the Northern Hemisphere production forecast that was released in August 2018, and the season developments.
WAPA discussed and released the consolidated crop forecasts for the forthcoming southern hemisphere apple and pear seasons (see tables in annex). Collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa, the forecast showed that the 2019 apple and pear Southern Hemisphere crops are expected to reach 5.261.000 T and 1.327.000 T, respectively. For apples, this represents an increase of 2 % compared to the 2018 crop. Export is expected to remain stable at 1.738 million T. The pear crop is expected to increase by 2 % compared to 2018. Export is expected to remain stable at 712.154 T.
Other topics on the agenda were marketing, promotion and consumption trends, research and innovation activities among the members, and global initiatives to preserve the biodiversity of the many apple varieties.
Finally, WAPA elected a new president, Nicholas Dicey from HortGro, South Africa, formerly WAPA’s vice-president. As new vice-president, Dominik Wozniak from the Polish Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards was elected. The WAPA secretariat and members are looking forward to continuing the good trends in the coming years with its new presidency and thanked Todd Fryhover from Washington Apple Commission for his time and efforts as WAPA’s vice- president and president over the last four years.
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 71 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 45.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Non-Valencia Oranges 32.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 32.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and is projected to be above average until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 800 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is close to the maximum.
Valencia Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 45.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The trading pace in the market of in natura orange was slow in Brazil in the first fortnight of October. Besides the lack of high quality fruits, rains in São Paulo State limited harvesting activities and lowered the available supply even more. Demand, in turn, was low too, mainly due to the Brazilian holiday on October 12, when liquidity usually decreases.
Purchasers reduced pear orange acquisitions, opting for lower priced varieties, such as valencia. From October 1 to 15, pear orange quotes averaged 32.90 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.8 % up compared to that in the same period of September. Valencia oranges, however, were traded at 28.89 BRL per box, 8.9 % up in the same comparison.
Regarding tahiti lime, rainy weather hampered fieldwork and prices rose in the first fortnight of October. From Sept. 30 to Oct. 15, tahiti lime quotes averaged 81.98 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 21.6 % up in the same comparison. Precipitation, on the other hand, should favor fruit growth on tree, based on the estimates for a slight supply increase this month.
2019/20 SEASON – The first purchase offers for the oranges from the 2019/20 crop have started to be reported in the market of São Paulo State. On an ad hoc basis, large-sized processors have bid prices around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors, with the possibility of a bonus in the sales price of orange juice in the international market. Processors bidding prices have been lower than in the spot market this season (at 24 BRL per box for prompt-delivery).
In general, according to agents from processors, farmers are cautious regarding closing trades in advance, since the next season output is still uncertain. Although blossoming was considered positive in most orchards, the weather will be crucial for a good flower settlement – in the same period last year, many fruitlets were lost, reducing production in the 2018/19 season.
Besides, the result of the Presidential Election in Brazil may influence both the exchange rate and, consequently, the price received by processors for orange juice sales in the international market. The farmers consulted by Cepea that have already been contacted by processors, mainly for renegotiation, say they will wait for a better definition in the coming months to decide whether to sell or not their fruits.
Brazilian citrus farmers believe the next orange crop in São Paulo will have positive results, mainly in the orchards located in southern state, where the weather is more favorable (with rains interleaved with sunny days). Farmers are focused on the central area of the state, where intense heat and smaller rain volumes have already caused fruitlets to drop.
Citrus utilized production for the 2017-18 season totaled 6.13 million tons, down 20 percent from the 2016-17 season and 66 percent lower than the record high production of 17.8 million tons for the 1997-98 season. Florida accounted for 36 percent of total United States citrus production; California totaled 59 percent, and Texas and Arizona produced the remaining 5 percent.
Florida’s orange production, at 45.0 million boxes, is down 35 percent from the previous season. Grapefruit utilization in Florida, at 3.88 million boxes, is down 50 percent from last season’s utilization. Florida’s total citrus utilization decreased 37 percent from the previous season. Bearing citrus acreage, at 400,900 acres, is 9,800 acres below the 2016-17 season.
Utilized citrus production in California decreased 7 percent from the 2016-17 season. California’s all orange production, at 45.4 million boxes, is 6 percent lower than the previous season. Grapefruit production is down 9 percent from the 2016-17 season and tangerine and mandarin production is down 19 percent. Utilized production of citrus in Texas is up 9 percent from the 2016-17 season. Orange production is up 37 percent from the previous season but grapefruit production was unchanged. Lemon production in Arizona is down 35 percent from last season.
The value of the 2017-18 United States citrus crop decreased 7 percent from last season, to $3.28 billion (packinghouse- door equivalent). Total value of production for 2017-18 is lower for all citrus crops. Orange value of production decreased 9 percent from last season and grapefruit value is down 14 percent. Tangerine and mandarin value of production is 1 percent higher than last season but lemon value of production is down 6 percent. Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins for Florida.
Overall comparisons discussed above are based on similar fruit types. The revised production and utilization estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Estimates for the 2017-18 California Valencia oranges and grapefruit are preliminary, since the marketing season is not complete at publication time. Revisions to the utilized production estimates for all citrus for the 2017-18 season will be published in the April 2019 Crop Production. …
Ponkan tangerine season is near the end in São Paulo State. According to agents consulted by Cepea, only a few crops still have some volume to be harvested in early July. In most of the regions, production has already ended. Now, the in natura market from SP has been supplied by other states, mainly Minas Gerais (MG).
According to Cepea collaborators, the crop period (mature fruits) should last for two or three more weeks in that state. However, the fruits from the second flowering event have not been harvested yet. Thus, farmers estimate production to continue until September.
As for quality, agents have reported that fruit growth in MG was hampered by the weather, since it has not rained significantly in that region since April. Thus, ponkan tangerine from that state are mid-sized.
SP – As expected by agents, the harvested volume of ponkan tangerine in São Paulo State is smaller this year. While in 2017 supply lasted for seven months, this year, availability is already low – June is the fourth production month and the crop peak occurred between April and May.
However, the available volume decreased in late May, since some farmers from SP reported fruit losses during truckers’ strike, due to the long period on trucks and higher sensibility of that variety (which was already more mature than oranges).
Prices for ponkan tangerine in 2018 are above the monthly averages last year (from March to June). Lower supply this year, in turn, is linked to unfavorable weather during the development of the fruits, in the second semester of 2017, and the lower vigor of plants, after a large crop last year.
In general, production was low in the last years, with well-distributed crops, no crop peak and not lasting longer than four months. The 2017 season was atypical, due to the different development stages of the fruits at groves, which allowed the harvesting to last longer than in previous years.
In June, supply decreased and prices rose in São Paulo. According to Cepea collaborators, the demand for ponkan was firm in that period – higher than for other citrus varieties. Thus, from June 1 to 20, quotes for ponkan tangerine averaged 36.80 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 10% up compared to that in May (2 – 30).
ORANGE – In June, orange prices were underpinned by low supply of fruits at the ripening stage required by the in natura market. Moreover, the industrial demand is already stepping up, reducing supply in the spot market from São Paulo.
The smaller crop forecast for the Brazilian citrus belt in 2018/19 (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), at 288.29 million 40.8-kilo boxes (almost 30 % lower than the 2017/18 season), should result in critical inventories at processors from São Paulo State on June 30 2019. In 2017//18, despite the larger crop, supply was not significant, only enough to slightly increase the low inventories from 2016/17.
Thus, by June 2019, inventories should be 50 % smaller, considering forecasts for the 2018/19 crop. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on May 22 estimated ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from 55.9 thousand tons to 154.7 thousand tons in June 2019. CitrusBR forecasts were based on the volumes crushed in the 2017/18 season, at around 243.4 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 34 % down compared to the 370 million boxes crushed in the current season (2017/18).
Cepea calculations, however, indicate inventories are more likely to be from 55.9 and 102.6 thousand tons, not reaching the maximum level estimated by CitrusBR (at 154.7 thousand tons). To forecast that scenario, CitrusBR considered exportations will keep firm. Now, if processors do not aim to reduce inventories that much, the volume shipped may decrease in 2018/19.
The 2017/18 ending stocks of orange juice should be at 305.9 thousand tons by June 30 2018, 20.3 % up compared to that forecast in February/18. The positive 2017/18 harvesting ensured comfortable inventories to processors this year.
In general, the global demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, Considering Florida crop may be 35 % lower, according to the USDA, juice availability should continue low in the next season (2019/20).
Regarding growers’ revenue, forecasts for the short-term indicate prices may not change much. Most farmers have already closed contracts with processors, and even if bidding prices rise from now onward, only a few growers would have fruits available for trading. Besides, productivity should be low, since the number of boxes produced per hectare results in a higher cost per unit and lower margins.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales were slow in the in natura market in May, due to both colder weather in São Paulo and truckers’ strike, which halted transportation. With the protests, which started on May 21, part of the fruits harvested stayed on trucks.
In that scenario, growers preferred to interrupt harvesting late in the month, aiming to avoid losses. In May (2 – 30), pear orange quotes averaged 26.33 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11.7 % down compared to that in April (2 – 30).
TAHITI LIME – The strike has affected the domestic and international markets of tahiti lime as well. According to Cepea collaborators, purchasers were concerned about acquiring fruits and not receiving them, while growers feared to be affected by flow difficulties. Farmers consulted by Cepea affirmed that the fruits that are still on tree should not be damaged by the harvesting interruption.
In May (2 – 30), tahiti lime quotes averaged 45.13 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 142.5 % up compared to that in April (2 – 30).
Chr. Hansen and FMC Corporation have announced a five-year extension of their collaboration to develop and commercialize natural solutions for the agricultural industry
The collaboration, which has launched several successful natural solutions over the last five years, has enabled both Chr. Hansen and FMC to join resources and expertise to accelerate entry into the rapidly growing biological crop protection market. The newly extended agreement continues to leverage the resources and expertise of both companies, while allowing for more flexibility.
During the last five years, Chr. Hansen and FMC have had an exclusive relationship regarding crop protection. While the mutual development pipeline will continue to be exclusive, both companies will be able to pursue development and commercial relationships with other partners, if desired.
“Chr. Hansen and FMC have enjoyed a successful relationship, including the launch of new products that provide natural alternatives for farmers to significantly boost crop yield,” said Christian Barker, Chr. Hansen executive vice president, Health & Nutrition. “Now, with our continued collaboration confirmed, we look forward to launching our strong pipeline of new products together in the years ahead. Beyond that pipeline, the new agreement provides full flexibility for both parties which will enable Chr. Hansen to further leverage our distinctive microbial capabilities by also collaborating with additional partners.”
Marc Hullebroeck, president, FMC Europe, Middle East and Africa, added:
“We are pleased to extend our relationship for at least another five years as we continue to collaborate on commercializing technologies that have been jointly developed. In addition, FMC will continue its own efforts on discovery, development and commercialization of new innovative technologies at our state-of-the-art laboratory facilities at FMC’s European Innovation Center near Copenhagen, Denmark. Our priority is to focus on differentiated solutions for growers throughout the world.”
On Wednesday, May 9, Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released new estimates for the 2018/19 season, reducing production in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and Triângulo Mineiro) by 27.6 % compared to that in the previous crop. According to the report, harvesting in that region should total only 288.29 million orange boxes (40.8-kilo) in 18/19, 11 % down compared to the historical average of the sector.
Lower estimates from Fundecitrus have confirmed Cepea forecasts for a smaller output in 2018/19, due to the damages and losses observed in the main flowering event (from August to October last year), mainly for pear oranges. That scenario was linked to the dry weather and high temperatures during the settlement of the flowers that would become the oranges from the new season. Still, the first estimates indicated losses around 20 %, which could result in a higher production than that forecast.
Ending stocks for orange juice should be 22 % larger on June 30, 2018 (at 254.2 thousand tons), according to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), but that is still the fourth lowest volume in the last 20 years. Thus, the citrus belt would have to harvest, once again, high amounts, in order to ensure comfortable inventories at processors. The demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, making the global supply and demand scenario even more difficult.
However, in the short-term, growers’ revenue may not increase significantly, since most of them have already closed anticipated trades with processors – trades have been closed since November last year. Thus, only a few growers still have fruits available for trading.
Currently, only one of the large-sized processors has been purchasing fruits in the spot market. Before the new estimates were released, quotes for all varieties were at 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo, harvested and delivered at the processor. However, prices may increase as the crop nears and more processors enter the market.
In the mid-term, on the other hand, forecasts for the next season (2019/20) are more positive, considering juice inventories may be empty by June 2019. Besides, with the smaller output in Florida, international demand for the commodity should continue firm during the season. There are concerns with the weather in the coming months as well, which may lower the volume forecast even more.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales increased in the in natura market in early May. According to growers, the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid, may have favored demand. However, the average price for that variety in the first fortnight of the month was 19 % lower than in the first fortnight of April. That scenario is linked to higher supply in São Paulo, as well as the slow crushing pace at processors, which led orange sales exclusively to the in natura market (these fruits would be allocated to processors for crushing). Between May 2 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 25.81 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 19 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of April (2 – 13).
Tahiti lime quotes, however, continued at high levels in that period, both in the domestic market and for exportation. According to growers, the fruits still on tree have a good quality, but have not reached the ideal size to be harvested yet – due to the lack of rains in São Paulo. Thus, tahiti lime quotes averaged 49.17 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, between May 2 and 15, a staggering 174.2 % up compared to the price average in the first fortnight of April.
The 2018/2019 orange crop forecast published on May 09, 2018 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp1 is of 288.29 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This total includes:
55.81 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
16.55 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
81.16 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
99.80 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
34.97 million boxes of the Natal variety.
1. Bearing trees
Bearing trees of the varieties which make up this estimate total 175.27 million. Information about bearing trees was obtained from the Tree Inventory for São Paulo and west-southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt: March 2018 status, defined by the new mapping of groves performed from September 08, 2017 to January 29, 2018 and by counting of trees present in 5% of plots mapped, from January 29 to March 07, 2018
The georeferenced mapping, carried out for the first time at the 2015 Inventory, has been through a complete update for this 2018 Inventory. New high definition orthorectified images were obtained by the satellites SPOT 6&7 from European Airbus Defence and Space between May and August, 2017. In September, 2017 images were made available to survey agents, together with drawings of plots identified in the previous mapping, which were superimposed to the images for easier visualization of areas that should be visited to collect in loco data. Scanning or visual inspection of images were also employed by survey agents before they went to the field to pre-identify citrus groves planted after the previous mapping from 2015 to 2017, which should also be visited.
No information relative to the plot other than their outlines was supplied to survey agents, which required all new data to be collected on: variety, year set, spacing, visual aspect of plants and irrigation system, when present2. Recently collected data relative to the variety and year set that differed from the previous register were audited for validation. Outlines of plots were redrawn to correspond to their present area, whenever their area was changed after plots having been registered in the previous mapping. Field visits identified plots that were abandoned or eradicated after the 2015 Inventory, and those identified in that mapping as being in a similar situation, so that they were also revisited for updating data. A new feature in the current mapping is the delimitation of farms, which more precisely quantifies farms present in the citrus belt…
Orange production final1 estimate totals 398.35 million boxes
The 2017-2018 orange production final estimate for the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais Citrus Belt, published on April 10, 2018 by Fundecitrus – Fund for Citrus Protection, carried out in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 398.35 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, 62 % higher in comparison to that of the previous crop (2016-2017) with a final figure of 245.31 million boxes, and 25 % above the average of the seasons of the last ten years3. All crop estimate updates published along the season showed positive change as compared to the previous expectation. The final figure represents an increase of 0.27 % in relation to the update published in February 2018 and 9.30 % in relation to the initial May 2017 forecast.
The closing figure for total production includes:
77.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
18.02 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Valencia Argentina, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
118.47 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
139.62 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
44.76 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 30.51 million boxes of the final estimated crop were produced in the West of Minas Gerais.
Regarding the productivity index, the crop 2017-2018 showed a remarkable performance: 1,033 boxes were harvested per hectare, against 634 boxes per hectare in 2016-2017. The significant variation between the two crops was triggered by a favorable conjunction of factors. Suitable weather for citrus growing and improved cultural practices in groves in 2016, evidenced by the increased demand of inputs for crop nutritional and phytosanitary management, influenced positive results…
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Valencia Argentina, Seleta, Pineapple Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2 Department of math and science.
Rains were below the average for October in three of the four main citrus regions in São Paulo State; therefore, growers were very concerned with the development of the 2018/19 crop. Although it rained in early October, the soil was really dry and the volume was not enough to recover moisture for flower settlement. This scenario, added to high temperatures, favored fruitlet drops.
Fruitlets had already dropped more intensely in the non-irrigated groves from central and northern SP, where the weather is usually drier and warmer – even before it rained in early October.
Agents do not expect significant sprouts in the plants with flower buds, even with the return of rains. Others, in turn, believe new flowering events may occur if rains are enough, but not as significant as the main event (from late August to early September).
On the other hand, in southwestern SP, the rain volume until October 19 had surpassed the average volume expected for the month, according to Climatempo (weather forecast agency). The only concern, according to growers consulted by Cepea, was with sharp temperature oscillations, which may lead to a higher rate of fruitlet drops.
CROP 2017/18– Regarding the current crop (2017/18), high temperatures led oranges on trees to wilt again, making it difficult for fruits to remain on the trees in the rainy period. The losses early in the month were estimated at around 20 % in older groves and at around 15 % in younger groves, mainly in the plants affected by greening.
In this scenario, the quality of in natura oranges was lower than that demanded by the segment, justifying price rises. In October, pear orange quotes averaged 19.24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11 % up compared to that in September.
Hurricane Irma, which hit Florida on September 10, should damage the local citrus groves. Since it reached a wide area, all citrus producing regions should be affected, mainly central and southwestern state.
In an interview for ABC News, the executive director of the Florida Citrus Department, Shannon Stepp, said that production was likely to surpass 75 million boxes, as estimated by Elizabeth Steger before the hurricane hit. Now, the director expects numbers to decrease sharply.
There are no official estimates regarding the damages caused by Irma hurricane yet, but the press has reported damages between 10 % and 80 %, depending on the area and the variety. The press has also released reports from local growers estimating damages at 1.2 billion USD to the agricultural production, including citrus, sugarcane, tomatoes, green beans, cucumber and others. Besides, fruits and trees drops were observed, as well as floods in citrus groves from Florida.
ORANGE JUICE – At the New York Exchange Stock (ICE Futures), the future contracts of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) due in November/17 increased in the second week of September, with the announcement of hurricane Irma by the United States. Thus, between September 5 and 12, values rose 19.12 %, averaging 2,191.59 USD per ton.
In this scenario, citrus growers from all over the world are focused on the impacts of Irma hurricane on global demand for orange juice. For Brazil, that scenario would only reinforce the need of importation from the United States, since inventories from North-American processors are low. Therefore, a larger crop in the citrus belt from São Paulo may help Brazil to meet that demand.
According to the last report from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), released on September 11, the 2017/18 crop was estimated at 374.06 million 40.8-kilo boxes in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. That volume is 2.63 % larger than that first estimated in May, and 52.5 % higher than that in the previous season (2016/17), which ended with 245.3 million boxes. This inventory increase was favored by rains in the first semester (April to June/17), which boosted fruits growth, mainly for the early fruits, whose harvest had reached 75 % of the total area in mid-July.
Due to the flowering in non-traditional months (December and January) there are a large number of “green”, not yet ripe fruits mixed with ripe fruits from the normal flowering (August-September 2019). This brings an additional difficulty to the harvesting operation that has to be carried out in at least two different times, resulting in an increase of the production cost for the citrus growers.
