After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.

The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.

As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.

Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season

Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.

Processing activities

The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.

Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.

Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.

Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.

On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.

Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.

It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.

Market

The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.

Total forecast production of oranges¹ updated to 307.22 million boxes

The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp², is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.

In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

2023 -2024 orange crop forecast

The 2023 – 2024 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus beltby Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 309.34 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:

• 56.11 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
• 18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada;
• 98.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
• 105.23 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
• 30.83 million boxes of the Natal variety.

Approximately 27.02 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

The projected volume is lower only by 1.55 percent as compared to the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes. That minor difference maintains the production at the same level as in the previous crop season and within the average range for the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. As compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a slight increase of 1.04 percent …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes¹

The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:

• 47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
• 74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The current number of flowers in the orange orchards in São Paulo – which will give origin to the fruits from the 2022/23 season – is considered satisfactory in most citrus-producing regions within the state. In general, while in irrigated orchards blooming was observed from September onwards, in non-irrigated orchards, flowers were only observed in October, after the late arrival of rainfall.

Agents have been concerned about the possible effects of the lack of rains this year on the vigor of orange trees, since low moisture may hamper fruit set, increasing the rate of fruitlet fall in irrigated orchards and, largely, in the orchards in dryland.

According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 90 % chance of La Niña forming in Brazil until the end of 2021. If this is confirmed, rainfall in the coming months may be lower than usual in the southeastern region of the country. However, La Niña is forecast to be weak in Brazil.

This scenario may have a negative influence on the output from the 2022/23 season, since the development stage of plants in the coming months demands good amounts of water. With estimates for low ending stocks of orange juice in the 2021/22 season, the output from 2022/23 needs to be high in order to ensure comfortable inventories for world supply.

Cepea calculations show that, for ending stocks in the 2022/23 season (June 2023) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the output next season needs to surpass 330 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. In this context, the average productivity would have to be around a thousand boxes per hectare, which has only been observed in seasons favored by the weather.

With the anticipation of the drought and rainfall below the average in the first quarter of 2021 in São Paulo (SP), the development of the oranges from the 2021/22 season is below the expected, majorly in non-irrigated groves. At the current stage of groves development (fruit enlargement), moisture is crucial, which is warning farmers about the volume to be harvested this season.

So far, it is believed that production will be small, but larger than that in the 2020/21 season (due to the weather in the second semester of 2020 and its effects on flowering and settlement).

Besides the number of fruits, which is not forecast to be high, citrus farmers have been concerned about quality issues that may occur because of low moisture. The top complaints are related to size (since fruits may take longer to reach the ideal size) and wilted oranges (riper fruits), largely pear and early oranges. On the other hand, until the end of April, fruit drop, which may also be worsened by the lack of rain, was not significant, according to farmers.

In order to avoid higher quality loss, some farmers may accelerate the harvesting, even if the oranges have not reached the ideal size and ripening, which may hamper sales and constrain price rises.

INDUSTRIAL YIELD – On the other hand, industrial yield may be favored by the lack of rainfall in citrus-producing regions, since less boxes of oranges may be necessary to produce a ton of concentrated juice.

Orange production for the 2020-2021 crop season totaled 268.63 million boxes¹

The final 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 12, 2021 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² – was 268.63 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lb), which represents a decrease of 6.65 % in relation to the first crop forecast published in May 2020, accounting for a reduction of 19.13 million boxes. This crop had a decrease of 118.16 million boxes in comparison to the previous season, which is equivalent to a volume 30.55 % smaller than that of the 2019-2020 cycle, confirming a record crop loss for all the years in which the crop suffered the physiological effects of the negative biennial production cycle of orange trees since the beginning of the historical series in 1988. Total orange production included:

• 47.00 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 13.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
• 81.45 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 91.95 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 34.38 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
• Approximately 19.33 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

One of the reasons that explains this substantial crop loss is the fact that orange trees started flowering in the spring of 2019, when reserves were lower because they had been used in the previous crop season when there was a significant yield increase. Decreased reserves led to a significant reduction in the number of fruits per tree in this season, a phenomenon known as alternate bearing. The other reason is the strong negative influence of the climate throughout the season. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Updated orange¹ crop forecast totals 385.31 million boxes

The 2019-2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² – is of 385.31 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.80 % in relation to the previous update published in September 2019, and of 0.92 % compared to the first estimate of the crop, disclosed in May 2019. Out of the total crop, about 26.88 million boxes are estimated for the Triângulo Mineiro region.

Heavy rains in November on virtually the entire citrus belt eased the drought, but since May total rainfall stood at 17 % below the historical average (1981-2010): 409 millimeters in the average across regions, while historical average is 495 millimeters, according to data from Somar Meteorologia. The driest period was at the beginning of the crop season, from May to August, when the negative deviation reached 32 % in relation to the climatological standard normal. Although rains resumed in the first week of September, this followed a two-week window of dry weather on most of the belt, which characterized the occurrence of an Indian summer. It was not until mid-October that the rainy season began to set in, although the monthly accumulated rainfall rate was still below average. In November, rainfall was abundant and well distributed throughout the month, with accumulations ranging from 95 to 265 millimeters among the citrus belt regions. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal

Updated orange¹ crop forecast totals 388.42million boxes

The 2019-2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² – is of 388.42 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.12 % in relation to the estimate published in May/2019. Approximately 27,14 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha andNatal.
²Departamentof Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.

Final orange¹crop forecast totals285.98 million boxes

The 2018-2019 final orange crop forecast for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² – is of 285.98 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which is 28.2 % smaller in comparison to the previous crop (2017-2018) of 398.35 million boxes, and 11.6 % below the crop average in the last ten years³. The survey’s data show that final production was 0.8 % smaller than the initial projection carried out in May 2018, of 288.29 million boxes. Final crop total includes:

• 50.70 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
• 14.66 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
• 79.12million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
• 107.91 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
• 33.59million boxes of the Natal variety.

Approximately 16.02 million boxes of the finalcrop were produced in West Minas Gerais.

This crop season, adverse weather conditions in the citrus belt, with the exception of the Southwest region, resulted in a lower yield in groves. Irregular climate in the crop season set in back in 2017 with delayed spring rains, which caused orange trees to bloom late. High temperatures after flowering hindered fruit set, ultimately reducing the number of oranges per tree.

During fruit development and harvesting from May 2018 to March 2019, the accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 1,295 millimeters, which is 3 % below historical average (1981-2010), according to data from Somar Meteorologia.The months of May 2018 to July 2018 were drier than expected, with rainfall well below average. With decreased rainfall, fruit size did not reach the average 256 fruits per box (159 grams per fruit) projected in May 2018. Threefruits above projection were necessary to fill a 40.8 kg box. Therefore, the final average size for all varieties was 259 fruits per box (158 grams per fruit). The deviation between final average size (April 2019) and projected size (May 2018) was small, although deviation for each variety was more significant due to irregular rainfall distribution and fruit harvesting time. …

Please download the full update.

• ¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
• ²Department of Math and ScienceatFCAV/Unesp, Jaboticabal Campus.
• ³Average production for the last decade is of 323.34 million boxes. Data for crops 2008/2009 to 2014/2015 supplied by orange juice companies associated to Fundecitrus –Citrosuco, Cutrale and Louis Dreyfus, which, individually, have estimated their crop for the citrus planted area since 1988, through objective methodology. Data for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 crops supplied by Fundecitrus.

The first oranges from the 2019/20 season started to arrive at the market of São Paulo State in the first fortnight of March. Despite the small volumes harvested, trades started in the same month as production did last year. Thus, Brazilian citrus growers believe the output of early oranges will be able to supply the Brazilian in natura market.

Considering the favorable weather during the development of the flowers of these varieties (second semester of 2018), the citrus growers consulted by Cepea have reported a satisfactory flower settlement –, resulting in a positive volume harvested in all producing regions this new season. For now, supply has been controlled, due to the delay in fruits growth, which, in turn, reflects the lack of rains in January. In this scenario, most early oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage for the in natura segment yet.

According to growers, among the fruits supplied in the first fortnight of March, the main varieties were rubi, hamlin and lima sorocaba – traded at 30 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on average, on tree. The remaining varieties, such as westin and baía, may arrive at the market starting the second half of the month, as they reach the ideal stage.

However, supply should not be large enough to lead too many processors to start activities. Thus, until mid-April, the main destination of these fruits should be the in natura market – mainly to offset the low supply of pear oranges in the offseason period.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – The Carnival period in Brazil (March 2 to 6) weakened the demand for oranges in early March. Supply, in turn, was limited by the rains in São Paulo, which lowered fruits quality, mainly for late oranges. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for pear and late oranges.

Thus, between March 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 43.32 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 15.1% up compared to that in the first fortnight of February.

The supply of larger-sized tahiti lime increased in São Paulo State in November, due to rains. And as larger-sized fruits arrived at the market, the availability of small-sized tahiti lime decreased – until mid-November, the supply of small-sized fruits was high, since farmers were interested in trading them at high price levels.

In that scenario, quotes were 47.7 % lower than in October, averaging 39.57 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, last month. As for liquidity, sales decreased in the Brazilian market too.

PERSPECTIVES – At processors, crushing is forecast to step up only in mid-January – prices have not been estimated yet. This year, the average tahiti lime quotes were higher than in 2017 most part of the year (except for March, July and August), pushed up by lower supply and firm demand, from both Brazilian processors and the international market.

ORANGE – Higher supply and weakened demand pressed down pear orange quotes by 7.9 % from October to November, to the average of 30.24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, last month. In general, rains and the slight cold front during the month halted the citrus market. However, although demand decreased, the harvesting was limited by precipitation, constraining sharper price drops.

FIELD – The heavy rains from October and November in the main citrus producing regions from São Paulo State concerned Brazilian citrus growers regarding the quality of the mature oranges from the current season (2018/19). High moisture was leading the late fruits to grow up to large sizes before the ideal harvesting period (due to the higher water concentration), reducing acceptance in the in natura market.

This scenario may also reduce yield at processors. Still, farmers believe these fruits may be accepted for crushing, which may limit volume reductions, based on the smaller production in 2018/19.